McCain and the Democrats: Analysis from Philipe Gelie

George Bush’s reception of John McCain at the White House was not a transfer of powers, but it did put the advantages conferred to the Arizona senator into the foreground with his victory in the Republican primaries. Free from the competition in his camp, he must begin to unify the party for November’s vote, a crucial task for the “independent” who has not always been able to convince the Christian right. He will draw support from funds for November’s front, an operation in which the help of the president will be integral. He will equally benefit from the organization of Republican Party funds, advisors, and campaign plans. He can finally take the time to choose a running-mate.

The 71-year-old senator plans to launch his official campaign after Easter. He should carry out a nation-wide campaign tour in order to make it known that he was a survivor of torture in Vietnam, and then conduct a series of discourses during the summer over the economy, the environment, and the health care system. Karl Rove, President Bush’s former strategist, advised him to ignore the Democrats for the time being and to save his ammunition for the final duel. While the Democrats divide themselves, he has the opportunity to court the Independent voters, vital for winning the general election.

The confusion within the opposing party seems to guarantee several weeks of peace for McCain. Despite her comeback in Texas and Ohio (the third in two months after New Hampshire and Super Tuesday), Hillary Clinton only registered a minor gain with around 10 delegates in comparison with her adversary. Out of 26 million votes registered up until today, Barack Obama has a lead of 500,000 voices; he is counting on around 100 more delegates and he can boast on having won 27 out of 42 states. The senator from New York emphasizes that she has won all of the big states, in particular the swing states that the Democrats could not let the Republicans have for risk of failure in November.

But their front is virtually immobilized. Neither one nor the other can hope to reach the threshold of the 2,025 delegates necessary to secure the support of the Party before the end of the 12 remaining battles. It is mathematically impossible: even if one of the candidates walks off with all of the upcoming states with 60% of the votes, they would only gain 366 supplementary delegates; that would still leave 196 for Clinton and 95 for Obama. Therefore, the difference will come from the superdelegates, 796 elected and party leaders of the who embody the qualities of the Democratic convention. Between 350 and 450 among them will still be undecided: Clinton needs to persuade two-thirds, Obama, one-third.

The strategy of the former First Lady consists of winning Pennsylvania on the 22nd of April, thereby demonstrating that she is in the best position to win the battles to come against McCain. Meanwhile, she urges the superdelegates to “conserve their ammunition”. From her point of view, time is on her side, even if the following six weeks before the vote feel like an eternity in politics. Obama is counting on his favorable position tomorrow in Wyoming and in Mississippi on Tuesday in order to convince the superdelegates to come to his side.

All of these hypotheses allow for weeks of clashes. Several of them present an advantage for McCain: his opponents would do the dirty work for him and present themselves as weak in November’s vote. Others predict a benefit for the Democrats: the pursuit of the primaries would allow them to have a candidate already approved and to maintain the mobilization of their political base. The Republican candidate would find himself marginalized, pushed into the shadows.

Advantage or inconvenience, the situation is classic: in all presidential elections since 1928, there had been a candidate already in office. When the candidates who were in office were not contested by their own party, as Reagan in 1984, Bush Sr. in 1992, Clinton in 1996, and Bush Jr. in 2004, a single party was able to campaign. Hillary Clinton highlighted that in 1992, her husband had not attained the support of his Party before June, but she forgets that the campaign lasted only 9 months: this year, the battle is likely to last at least 17 months.

And the idea of a single ticket for the two rivals? Neither of them has excluded the idea. Obama does not see a reason to yield his leading position, and neither does Hillary, already having known the President’s role for 8 years. Not probable. Especially because against John McCain, Clinton and Obama would compound their weaknesses, not their strengths.