The Calculations of Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton is playing “all-out” in the primary elections in Pennsylvania. In this state where she is the favorite, it is not enough for her to win. She must take a sufficiently dazzling victory in order to reverse the course of things and present herself as the candidate who, without her, the Democrats will not be able to take on John McCain in November.

This will not be easy. The lead which the former First Lady had in this state of working-class traditions and whose sociological make-up seems to be at its extent, has considerably reduced recently.

Whatever Barack Obama’s blunders, Hillary Clinton has a gift for overreacting to them,, making him lose advantage at key moments. This was the case from the moment when the pastor of her rival, who sometimes uses racist and demagogical words, entered the scene. Barack Obama succeeded in removing himself from that rut by vocalizing a media grabbing speech on the issue of race.

When, more recently, the black candidate began to speak of the bitterness of the poor people of Pennsylvania who “cling to their time, their firearms, and their anti-immigrant prejudices”, Hillary Clinton did a lot to denounce such disdain for the little people. Sure enough, there was in this phrase, an indication which can lead one to think that, in spite of his magic, Barack Obama would not be like any other politician.

But it is not certain that the attack was carried out. Spontaneous, and certainly clumsy, the Illinois senator answered the always-calculating Hillary Clinton, whose attitude towards God showed that carrying arms and immigration are not exempt from ulteriror electoral motives.

If Barack Obama remains as the man to beat at this stage of the race, it is because he succeeded in escaping the formalities which Hillary Clinton tried to pin on him. He is neither the Black minority candidate nor that of the unions or the left-wing fringe of the Democratic Party. For the Democrats, Obama is elusive, non-descript. He will be even less so if he finds himself face to face with John McCain, who will be able to portray him as an extravagant Democrat and too soft in matters of national security.

After a long time already, Hillary Clinton plays to the second race of these elections in an attempt to establish herself as the essential frontrunner. She promotes herself as having more of a chance of taking the Presidential elections in November than Barack Obama.

It is an argument which no longer convinces Democrats.

If she wins in Pennsylvania today, she will be able to say that she won in all of the big states where the Democrats should be strong during the Presidential elections this fall. But for this argument to topple the super delegates in her camp who hold the key to her inaugaration, the victory will have to be presented as a remarkable triumph, marking a change in the campaign.

Otherwise, she will be left to resign if she does not want, by these thoughtless calculations, to prolong a fratricidal duel which can only compromise the chances of the Democrats to return to the White House.