The Iranian-Israeli-American Confrontation is not Coming

It seems that the fate of the Middle East is to host wars as a rule, with security and peace as the exception. During the last century, we suffered from dozens of wars and in this century, which is still in its infancy, we are experiencing various economic, water, political, and ideological wars, struggles, and a sectarian and terrorist conflict where a verbal war is flaring up between Washington, Tel Aviv, and Iran concurrently with exercises, displays of force, and direct and indirect threats. But in contrast, there are converging interests among these three parties, or what is called the Axis of Interests, for although we do not predict a hot summer, we are predicting hot deals, quotas, and map-drawing at the expense of the Arabs and the nations of the region. The Iranian pistachio and American tobacco might be the first step.

—These days the United States is experiencing the lowest degree of security and economic decline. After September 11, 2001, the Office of Homeland Security, which changed in 2002 to the Department of Homeland Security, was established, since it had become possible for every building, tower, park, or zoo to be a terrorist target. Before that fateful day (9/11) the Bush Administration used to consider terrorism, Osama bin Laden, and all the elements of Al Qaeda as something undefined.

—The Pentagon is requesting around $530 billion for the 2009 military budget, which represents an increase of 70% over the 2001 defense budget of $316 billion, to pay the enormous outlay for the war on Iraq and Afghanistan.

—No one can deny that the US Administration, by occupying Iraq and Afghanistan, offered a significant service to Iran and made it a major regional player through the Iranian Dawa Party in Iraq, which runs Iraq’s affairs, and Iran could not have dreamed of attaining the position it now occupies had it not been for American policies.

—There are no realistic, genuine, or practical indications of the existence of ingrained hostility between Israel and Iran for more than 70 years, and I believe that both Tehran and Tel Aviv know this well. The only ones who think that there is hostility are the simple Arab folk who are still living in the backward stages of awareness on the concept that interests trump principles and that what is evident is not the truth.

—The New York Times published a report last month that Israel is preparing to strike Iran in return for the strongly-worded letter sent by the American Ambassador to Israel (Richard H. Jones) to Israeli Prime Minister Olmert and Israeli Finance Minister Ronnie Bar-On, accusing Israel of secretly trading with and transferring money to Iran in violation of Israeli law. The American letter revealed that Israel buys Iranian pistachios and imports the equivalent of $20 million annually from Iran.

—Among the strangest wonders is that the United States, which blames and criticizes Israel for its importing Iranian pistachios, is considered the largest source of tobacco to Iran, given that US tobacco exports to Iran reached more than $60 million in 2005. The United States also sold, in 2007, around 1000 spare parts for F-14 fighters, which are used by Iran.

So how do these planes face Israeli F-16s and other missiles as the media focuses on the imminent war while ignoring the converging strategic interests of these parties (Israel, Iran, and America)? Indeed tracking aggressive Iranian rhetoric for more than three decades shows that it is the result of opportunism rather than fanaticism, for Iran will give priority to its geo-strategic interests over its ideological drives. For example, during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, Iran requested help from Israel when it was suffering from a severe shortage of weapons and ammunition. In short, playing the anti-Israel card helps Iran to overcome divisions— Persian-Arabic, Shia-Sunni— for the sharp-toned and severe rhetoric against Israel gets a friendly welcome in the Arab street, supports Israel in international quarters, and increases the West’s sympathy of Israel. This is the policy and the diplomacy which these three nations practice, and is ultimately the source while the Arabic people are targeted.