The Hangover After the Party

Those who cheer Obama today may be asked to deal with Afghanistan tomorrow. For Germany’s CDU-SPD coalition government, that could mean difficulties in the 2009 parliamentary elections.

Whoever wants an insight into what a possible President Obama’s foreign policy might look like is advised to take a look at his current travel itinerary. Before the U.S. Senator was celebrated in Berlin, he visited Afghanistan and Iraq, both sore points for America. Aside from the desired public relations effect in his campaign, this progression could be interpreted as so: first Obama looks at the problems, then he goes to those places where he hopes to find possible answers.

Obama’s speech in Berlin was an advertisement for the cooperative struggle against terrorism. For the German government, that’s a clear sign he expects more German participation. In the long term, the United States won’t accept the fact that it alone is doing the fighting against the Taliban while the Germans play the role of those nice guys helping the reconstruction effort.

A President Obama would not only find military assistance helpful, but a sharing of the financial burden would also go a long way toward helping America, now suffering a financial crisis, to remain capable of action. The German Parliament will decide this fall to increase the number of German troops in Afghanistan by 1,000 to a total of 4,500. Obama will ask for more, including the deployment of German troops to the dangerous southern part of the country.

All this has been clear to our coalition government for a long time. Despite that, Obama was treated like a teddy bear that spouted words of conciliation when his hand was shaken. Politicians of almost every party project the feeling that the trans-Atlantic partnership would blossom automatically with the charismatic Democrat in charge.

While the government already knows what’s coming in the future, voters could soon be turned off when they see that Obama’s new America still pursues the old goals. Up until now, Germans could silently reject more robust engagement in Afghanistan in the knowledge that they couldn’t be expected to follow George W. Bush like little puppy dogs. It will be more difficult, however, to be the first to turn down a desperate plea from the man they just lauded so highly.

It will be especially unpleasant for Germany’s coalition government that their first dealings with the new American President will come in the middle of the 2009 parliamentary elections. In a time like that, nobody wants to be suspected of standing to close to the Americans. All the nice pictures of today will then be trotted out and re-titled with more scathing captions.

It’s entirely possible that many will wish they had to deal with a man to whom it would be much easier to say no: John McCain.