Obama and Europe

Published in Le Monde
(France) on July 24th, 2008
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Sarah Repucci. Edited by .
While Europe may know Barack Obama well, the opposite is not true. The U.S. Democratic presidential candidate, who on Thursday, 24 July, embarks on a short European tour - Berlin, Paris and London-–indicated at the end of 2007 the had only made one visit to London, on the way to Russia. He is regularly reproached for not convening the Senate sub-committee on Europe, which he chairs. A few months ago, he still had yet to request a meeting with the E.U. representative in Washington.

According to polls, European populations are by a large majority pro-Obama, but their governments have a few reasons to be more cautious. On trade, the candidate has proven protectionist. He has taken a more nuanced position since the primaries, but Europeans can fear that a Congress with a Democratic majority will put on more pressure. “Obama perhaps is a ‘global’ candidate, but his positions aren’t that at all," is the opinion of many experts, among them Reginald Dale of the Center for Strategic [sic] International Studies.

On a nuclear Iran, the Europeans were excited to see him propose, a year ago, a no-strings-attached meeting with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, while they agreed on a strategy of refusal as long as Tehran does not freeze its uranium enrichment program. Obama now says that the meeting should not be considered “without preparation.” In Israel, he repeated on Wednesday, 23 July, that he does not want to forgo any “option” to prevent Iran from having the bomb, even though the mention of the military option is judged to be unproductive by the majority of Europeans and by one of his official advisors, Zbigniew Brzezinski.

“Obama is trying to win on two fronts,” says Reginald Dale. “If he feels that he is being criticized, he changes, but he never gives up his original position.” Finally, the Europeans can fear the calls for help from Obama, notably in Afghanistan. As in 2004, during the Bush-Kerry confrontation, some analysts believe that John McCain, the Republican candidate, will ask for less war effort from the Europeans.


Si l'Europe connaît bien Barack Obama, l'inverse n'est pas vrai. Le candidat démocrate à la présidence des Etats-Unis, qui entame jeudi 24 juillet une courte tournée européenne - Berlin, Paris et Londres -, a indiqué, fin 2007, qu'il avait déjà voyagé en Europe, mais, depuis quatre ans qu'il est membre du Sénat, il n'a effectué qu'une visite à Londres, sur le chemin de la Russie. Il lui est régulièrement reproché de ne pas avoir réuni la sous-commission sénatoriale chargée de l'Europe, qu'il préside. Il y a quelques mois, il n'avait encore jamais demandé à rencontrer le représentant de l'Union européenne à Washington.

Selon les sondages, les populations européennes sont très majoritairement pro-Obama, mais les gouvernements, eux, ont quelques raisons d'être plus circonspects. Sur le commerce, le candidat s'est montré protectionniste. Il a nuancé sa position après les primaires, mais les Européens peuvent craindre qu'un Congrès à majorité démocrate exerce davantage de pressions. "Obama est peut-être un candidat "global'', mais ses positions ne le sont pas du tout", estiment plusieurs experts, dont Reginald Dale, du Center for Strategic International Studies.

Sur le nucléaire iranien, les Européens s'étaient émus de le voir proposer, il y a un an, une rencontre sans conditions avec le président Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, alors qu'ils se sont mis d'accord sur une stratégie de refus tant que Téhéran ne gèlerait pas son programme d'enrichissement d'uranium. M. Obama estime maintenant que la rencontre ne doit pas être envisagée "sans préparation". En Israël, il a répété, mercredi 23 juillet, qu'il ne veut se priver d'aucune "option" pour empêcher l'Iran d'avoir la bombe, alors que la mention de l'option militaire est jugée improductive par la plupart des Européens et par l'un de ses conseillers officieux, Zbigniew Brzezinski.

"Obama essaie de gagner sur les deux tableaux, estime encore Reginald Dale. S'il se sent critiqué, il change, mais il ne répudie jamais sa position initiale." Les Européens peuvent craindre enfin les appels à l'aide de M. Obama, notamment en Afghanistan. Comme en 2004, lors de l'affrontement Bush-Kerry, certains analystes font le calcul que John McCain, le candidat républicain, demandera moins d'efforts de guerre aux Européens.
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