McCain's Risky Bet: Sarah Palin

Has John McCain brought about a brilliant political coup, or made a big mistake? The reasons for his surprise choice of Sarah Palin, governor of Alaska and politically unknown, appear obvious. At 44 years old, Sarah Palin carries a welcome touch of youth to the side of John McCain, 72. As a woman, she could rally the democrats disappointed by the failure of Hillary Clinton.

Coming from a “middle-class” working family, the candidate for the vice-presidency is supposed to contrast with an Obama judged as an elitist. She can also, within her own camp, correct the patrician image of John McCain, who is married to a wealthy heiress, and who recently declared he “did not know” how many houses he owned (seven, apparently).

Sarah Palin would moreover bring the powerful conservative religious fringe, determined to abolish abortion and hostile to homosexual marriage, closer to McCain. This “ordinary mom” who refused to abort her last son, who has Down’s Syndrome, professes her religious faith, to be expected in a country where the grand majority of citizens say they are believers.

Finally, Sarah Palin presents herself as a rebel, determined to fight against the clientelism and the establishment of her party and against the “network of old men from big schools,” which she has denounced in her discourse. Hasn’t she, in Alaska, fought corruption and pushed for the resignation of dishonest politicians?

But all of these arguments could easily be turned against McCain and his running mate. The republican candidate has perhaps brought his main argument against Barack Obama, that he is “not ready,” according to McCain, to exert the function of the Chief of State, back onto himself by choosing a woman without experience, elected only a year and a half ago the governor of a small eccentric state after having been the mayor of a city of 9,000 inhabitants. The age of John McCain makes a succession not inconceivable. Imagine the ex-mayor of Wasilla negotiating with Vladimir Putin in an international crisis…

The surprise nomination itself can illuminate the impulsive character of the presidential candidate, known for his fits of anger and strong emotion. As for his choice of a woman, he could be labeled a demagogue by some Americans, in a country where, as the opinion polls show, women are determined to vote first by platform, and not by the sex of the candidate. Hillary Clinton’s electorate was without a doubt more sensitive to her plan for universal social coverage than to her identity. And the societal opinions of Sarah Palin, such as the teaching of creationist theories in public school or the prohibition of abortion ,even though they are appreciated on the right, remain in the minority and are refused by a majority of Americans.

His incorruptible image, and hers as well, might not last. She is under an official investigation for – and she denies this – having fired a security chief who refused to dismiss the ex-husband of her sister-in-law from the National Guard after a difficult divorce. The American press has already embarked en-masse for Alaska. The truth is that Sarah Palin remains an unknown. She seems gifted with political talent, but her speech, full of striking formulas, is written by John McCain’s ghostwriter. The first test of fire won’t be long coming.

Tomorrow, Sarah Palin will face Joe Biden, her democratic counterpart, in the “debate of vice presidents.” A senator with extensive experience, the president of the senate foreign affairs committee; he must be licking his chops in anticipation. And without a doubt he remembers his predecessor Lloyd Bentsen who ate a very inexperienced Dan Quayle, selected for his youth and conservatism by George W. Bush’s father in 1998, alive. But it was Bush who won. Maybe the choice of vice president is not so important after all.