Fighters in Turbulence

Not only can the price stop the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) from becoming Norway’s next fighter. The financial crisis has many potential customers doubting.

For the producer Lockheed Martin the publication of the high price for Israel could be an unfortunate marketing setback. But it is so far more serious that Great Britain is seriously considering withdrawal from the project for financial reasons.

This is reported by The Times’ well-informed defense blogger Michael Smith. If the information is correct, the most important thread in the international “JSF-web” would snap. The entire framework could fall apart. That would also tear apart the math that came up with the price, which would mean a lot for Norway in the question of replacing its F-16s with 48 new JSF in ten years time. So far only Israel has committed to buying the JSF. At a high price.

Concern.

Great Britain is “level 1” in the JSF scheme. The country has already paid 2,5 billion pounds to develop the aircraft. BAE Systems is deeply involved in the work, and the plan was that the British would by 150 JSF. This number has already been reduced to 138. The British are already concerned because they are not getting enough information on the aircraft, and now the economic concerns have arisen on top of that. The surfacing information of what the JSF might cost, possibly as much as 120 million pounds per aircraft, has not contributed to improving its image with the British.

Last year President George W. Bush and former Prime Minister Tony Blair agreed on sharing sensitive information. It is still not ratified by congress. The British are worried that they will be stuck with a big, unknown bill when the JSF enters its production phase next year. If so, 1 billion pounds per year would flow from Britain to America for buying these aircrafts without the British getting their share of the extensive development work.

Eurofighter

The result might be that the British simply stop the collaboration and go for the Eurofighter instead. This aircraft is already operational, and is being developed to be the aircraft all modern air forces are aiming for. A “MR-platform” as it is called.

MR stands for Multi-role – aircraft which can be used for air combat, ground support, surveillance and control. Eurofighter pulled out of the competition for Norwegian air force one year ago, while the Swedish SAAB challenged the JSF with their Gripen. The Gripen is also operational, even if the offer to Norway is for a modernized, newer version.

If we look internationally, it is not just Norway that is reconsidering the JSF. Many feel that both the price and the project are so uncertain it could pay off to buy something you know exists, instead of having to look at glitzy brochures and – one must assume – highly classified technical documents about the aircraft’s supposedly superior abilities and sensors that are supposed to make all other aircrafts “obsolete”. Lockheed Martin has responded after it was claimed that a war game uncovered that the JSF was no match for Russia’s aircraft. This created fury in Australia, who is also reconsidering the JSF (They need 100 of them). Nonsense says the producer, with support from the American ministry of defense. But the information in the game is so highly graded it is impossible to know who is telling the truth.

Race

The well respected website defenceindustrydaily.com has pointed out that what was left out of the response. Amongst other things, that new infra-red missile systems makes the “stealthy” JSF very visible at a range of 70 kilometers, and that the “obsolete” competition, the Eurofighter, Rafale, Gripen and the Russian Sukhoi-30’s maneuverability is much better. Such technical details are difficult to assess for the layman, but it shows that there is an everlasting race between measures and counter-measures in defense technology.

The turbulence the JSF is going through at home and abroad is serious. The United States have planned to buy 2400 aircraft. But the costs in Iraq (One billion dollars per day) and now the financial crisis will squeeze defense budgets for years to come. The deliveries of the JSF could be postponed or reduced. It would lead to increased costs in a project that is already twice as expensive as planned.

Pressure

It is easy to understand why we are seeing intense work to convince and sell against the foreign participants in the project, whether they are level 1 (Britain), level 2 (Holland) or level 3 (Norway, Denmark). Some call this work “pressure”, like for example hints that it will have implications for security policy if a country like Norway chooses a Swedish aircraft over an American one.

If firm orders do not materialize next year, the JSF- programme will be in trouble. A Norwegian order of 48 aircraft would be important because it would send a signal to other nations in the same market. We cannot avoid a political interpretation of the choice of aircraft, regardless of type.