Poor Old Warrior McCain

Even the final television debate against Barack Obama won’t help the Republican candidate very much. He can’t win the election by ordinary means.

The sky would have to fall in order for John McCain to win this election. That’s not impossible if you define “the sky” as everything that’s been certain and unshakeable up until now – and then the unexpected happens. McCain’s problem is that the sky has already fallen once. And America’s voters have identified their priorities when it comes to the credit and financial crises: away with the laissez-faire policies of the last eight years and turn to the Democrats and Barack Obama for a cure.

The poor old warrior. “Either he wins the economic debate or he’ll lose,” said Newt Gingrich, former Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, thereby handing down an early death sentence to the 72-year old Senator’s campaign. But not all death sentences are carried out, and 20 days remain until November 4th, a long time in an election campaign. The Gingrich Alternative, however, isn’t a realistic alternative for McCain. If his party supporters expect him to deliver an economic policy knockout blow in Wednesday’s debate, they’re expecting something superhuman.

McCain has to disown himself

McCain’s misfortune is that his own laissez-faire principles have fallen out of style. That cussword “socialist” that the Republicans were able to use so successfully in stirring up fear of any Democrat, is no longer the potent weapon it once was. Who could possibly have anything against socialists in a country where the capitalist’s answer to everything now is “call in the state?”

Events have forced McCain to argue against his own convictions: he has to endorse government bailouts for banks and call for state help for indebted homeowners. That doesn’t really sound much different than what his Democratic rival is calling for. But he can argue within the framework of his own convictions – and that’s more convincing.

A second McCain misfortune is that he’s the sort of politician that doesn’t fit into this era any longer. He’s the courageous action figure who never hesitates or dithers in the face of the enemy. He’s different from the young dreamer, Obama, who gets bogged down in academic observation as soon as he descends into the depths of real-world politics. Even Obama’s staff often complains that their candidate isn’t aggressive enough.

But today’s enemy isn’t communism nor is it radical Islam. These days, the United States is in a battle with its own system. That’s psychologically complex and requires a different sort of national unity than does a terrorist attack. Rather than hasty action, a judicious response is required. Harvard professor Obama, who prefers intellectual discourse, suddenly sees his potential weaknesses transformed into his greatest strengths. The former law professor is able to deal with complex economic questions more easily than McCain.

Above all, now is the time for the smartest ideas. Obama sorts and packages them and is able to use them as proof of his ability to work across the aisle. As frontrunner, he’s able to patronizingly integrate McCain’s suggestions. That’s what he did when he applauded McCain’s suggestion to allow retirees to retain their pension funds without penalty until markets stabilize. Obama then went McCain one better by suggesting he would allow those still working to use their retirement funds to help tide them over emergencies.

Ideologies are mere side issues in these chaotic days. These days in the USA, the motto of Chinese reformer Deng Xiaoping, who led his people away from the pure teachings of communism, holds true: “It makes no difference if the cat is white or black as long as it catches the mouse.” These days, most Americans seem to think Obama has the better mouse-catching talents and are throwing the old prejudices overboard. A CNN poll revealed that 50 percent of Americans consider Obama less risky compared to only 45 percent for the candidate of experience, John McCain.

Racists also vote for Obama

The barriers between black and white are literally being lifted. If the polls are right, that means “hundreds of thousands of racists” would vote for Obama despite a campaign that tried to depict him as a closet Muslim. So said Slate magazine.

But the values fight has been pushed onto the back burner and that immunizes Obama against the usual Republican campaign tactics. Guns, abortion and gay marriage have proven to be of less importance to people than their bank balances. Who really cares if Obama ever came in contact with a left-wing revolutionary somewhere in the distant past?

The bitter truth for McCain is this: he can hardly win the election through confrontation and attacking Obama’s character isn’t working either. Only a mega-event like a truly disgusting revelation about Obama or a deadly threat like a terrorist attack can save him now.

But even John McCain can’t wish for the sky to fall again.