Republican Civil War

Interview: In the Republican Party, there is a storm rising in the shadow of Barack Obama. The editor of Minerva has interviewed two key people in Washington, D.C.

There are only seven weeks until Obama is sworn in as the new President of the United States. In the aftermath of his historic win, a fight is brewing in the Republican party.

In 2002 the party beat the Democrats by a virtual knock-out in the mid-term elections, and two years later President Bush was re-elected. The columnists wrote and Karl Rove dreamed of a permanent Republican majority, an alliance of Christian conservatives, friends of the military, economic liberalists, and a large portion of America’s Latino population.

Today the dream is shattered and the party is trying to find out where to go next. Everyone seems to agree on just one thing: George W. Bush has been a disaster. Even the presidents closest friends has turned their backs on him.

“McCain lost because of George W. Bush,” said Matthew Continetti to the Weekly Standard, a magazine known as being very favorable towards the administration. When Bush leaves office in January 2009 the party is left with no power, in the White House or Congress.

Back to basics

Edwin Meese III is a rock in the Republican establishment after four decades in politics. First as Gov. Ronald Reagan’s chief of staff in California, later as counselor to the President, member of his cabinet, and US Attorney General. Today Meese is associated with the largest of the conservative think tanks, The Heritage Foundation. I’m meeting him in his office in Washington, where he tells me that Republicans must go back to their basic, conservative principles.

Many Republicans and conservatives voted for Obama because the party had left its conservative principles and became a party for more federal spending, especially after the financial bail-out. And we also lacked leadership in both houses in Congress the last eight years.

At the other side of Washington are the offices of the Weekly Standard, the magazine that, amongst other things, is famous for its long campaign supporting the invasion of Iraq. In domestic affairs, they have a more moderate profile. One of its contributors, the former speech writer for George W. Bush, David Frum, recently called for a more pragmatic, solution-oriented and socially liberal Republican party that can appeal to young, urban voters. Associate editor of the Weekly Standard, Matthew Continetti, largely agrees.

– I think the administration has tackled this financial crisis pretty well, he told me, and said the Republican party must widen.

– When we won elections, we weren’t a solely conservative party. Reagan’s coalition was not based on rural voters, but the Reagan-democrats were urban working class voters. We used to have politicians like Governor George Pataki of New York, Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York City, and Governor Mitt Romney in Massachusetts. They were conservative on some issues, but not part of the establishment. That was seen as a sign of strength. Now the party is more conservative, but also powerless, Continetti says.

In 2003, Sen. Zell Miller wrote a book on the Democrats called “A National Party No More”. Today that description suits the Republicans better. The voters are to a larger extent white, older and rural, while America is more diverse, urban and educated. Reagan’s old Attorney General thinks its the current situation.

– I believe the Republican tough stance on immigration was the deciding factor for the Latinos. The urban and rural votes were mostly influenced by the economy. The cities felt the recession quicker than in the rural areas.

Higher temperature in the culture wars

The American parties are coalitions of groups of voters and special interest groups. Their standpoints internally can be very diverse.

The Democratic party’s strongest coalitions are the unions, minority groups (especially African-Americans), and liberal activist groups. The Reagan coalition was mostly made up of Christian conservatives, friends of the military, economic liberalists, and certain moderate elements. Now the coalition is falling apart. Meese believes the coalitions can be brought back together to win elections again.

– The McCain campaign disappointed almost all the coalitions at the same time. There was not enough focus on family values, the economic conservatives were disillusioned by the stimulus-package and Iraq is doing so well it no longer moves the electorate.

– Some claim the so-called “culture wars,” the debates about abortion, guns and gay rights alienate many young voters, especially in the cities.

– I think that’s wrong. Today people are more skeptical to abortion than any time earlier. People can disagree whether abortion should be illegal or not, but more and more people agree that Roe vs Wade was a mistake. The question should not be decided by the courts, but by individual states like we do with euthanasia. When gay marriage is concerned, California, one of the most liberal states in the union, voted to ban gay marriage. These issues are crucial, but they cannot be our only focus. We must address what people think is most important: health, economy, the public sector, and we must find market based solutions to the problems, Meese says.

A more moderate profile

Meese thinks the Republicans must fine tune their conservative profile, but many disagree. Republican columnist David Brooks endorsed Obama in the election and thinks the Republicans must move towards the center. He pictures a more intense struggle between traditionalists like Meese and moderate reformers like himself. The problem is that all the power is in the hands of the traditionalists.

– Over the past 40 years, the Conservative Old Guard has built up a movement of activist groups, donor networks, think tanks and publicity arms. The reformists, on the other hand, have no institutions, Brooks writes in his New York Times column.

Brooks has also called vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, a fatal cancer to the Republican party. Continetti at the Weekly Standard likes Sarah Palin, but agrees with Brooks’ diagnosis.

– The party must have a more moderate face. The trend the last few years is that the two parties are becoming more ideological, liberal Republicans moves to the Democrats, and conservative Democrats are changing to the Republicans. That is why we have no Republican representatives left from liberal New England. That’s a huge problem!

Continetti says that the party is more rural, whiter, less educated and more religious than the center of American politics.

– The party is perfect for Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee, but not for John McCain or Mitt Romney. To win a majority in the elections we must find room for candidates even if they do not necessarily pass the conservative litmus test. That is how the Democrats thought in 2006 when they recruited moderate and conservative candidates to run in strong, Republican areas. But maybe the party does not want to be the biggest? Maybe the would rather be ideologically pure?

– If the Republicans are to change into a more modern party, where will they find their base?

– (Laughter) If you ask me, I’ll ask you. That’s a good question. There is no base like that. There are rumors going around that Newt Gingrich will run in 2012. He is very popular among conservatives, but with him as a candidate we’ll win four states. Tops.

– How can the Republican win back the young voters?

By not having George Bush as president, or an old presidential candidate. Young people went 2-1 for Obama. If his presidency is successful the Democrats can win this entire group in the future.

Obama decides.

One factor is probably more important for the future of the Republican party than any other: Barack Obama. Matthew Continetti puts it like this:

– If Barack Obama governs well, the Republicans are in trouble. If he governs badly, the party will be back.

Edwin Meese III is more strict. He thinks Barack Obama is a wolf in sheep’s clothing, who partially won the election by talking like a Republican.

– Was that a bluff?

– We’ll find out… It will be very interesting.