The U.S. Will…China Should…

The U.S. will…

1. The U.S. will end the Iraqi War as soon as they can. If it is true that when oil prices were above $100, the U.S. could still reap benefit from its occupation of Iraq, then now, when oil prices have plunged below $40, it would be unwise for the U.S. to maintain such significant war expenditure for a continuing war in Iraq. The U.S. will wriggle itself out of the Iraqi War, keeping no more than 10,000 troops in Baghdad.

2. The U.S. will deploy more of its army to Afghanistan. And, to capture Osama Bin Laden will be the core theme for the Obama Administration. When ending the Iraqi War, America will focus on Bin Laden. That means, the U.S.-Pakistan relationship will face many challenges in the next four years.

3. If nothing goes wrong, Europe will be the destination of Obama’s first official overseas visit. The U.S. will move towards stabilizing its relationship with that continent. Very likely, the U.K. would be the first country visited. The U.K., its long-standing ally, would leverage a reaffirmation of America’s leading position in Europe.

4. To date, Obama has not made any major address on Russia and there is not enough information to know how the new administration will want to relate to the land of the Czars. Putin has lost much of his assurance now that oil prices have plummeted below US$40. Russia needs to repair its relationship with the U.S. This depends on the recovery of the American economy in the next 12 months. If its economy recovers, the U.S. could take a stronger stance towards Russia. NATO would fling its doors wide to the former USSR republics. This is a ‘must-do’ for the U.S., given that the Russian Polar Bear is its No.1 threat. However, Russia is simply too enormous, and the U.S. can only take it on one step at a time, inch by inch.

5. There will be more tensions between the U.S. and China, from selling arms to Taiwan to Obama/Hillary receiving the Dalai Lama, as well as trade disputes, human rights discussions, espionage issues and so forth. The Sino-U.S. relationship will see an end to its honeymoon period and move on to endless quarrels.

Is China ready for all these changes?

1. Arms sales to Taiwan. While the American economy is deep in recession, it needs to exploit all means to stimulate economic growth. Mega arms sales to Taiwan could be among these measures. The value of such sales could be beyond our imagination. We should talk to Taiwan through the Communist-KMT platform. Instead of spending so much for weapons, the Taiwanese government could channel wealth to the Taiwanese people, to spur domestic demand. However, Ma Ying Jeou (Taiwanese President) ultimately must procure some weapons to appease the pro-independent green camp. On this issue we may protest, but with a careful choice of words. We could pass on the issue of U.S. weapons, expressing our deepest regrets via the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council in a subtle manner. We should adopt a ‘could not care less’ attitude.

2. Obama and Hillary receiving the Dalai Lama. How should we respond? As mentioned in my earlier articles, receiving the Dalai Lama does not mean support for independence of Tibet. We, and not the Dalai Lama, have the last word on the independence of Tibet. We are making too big a fuss over the Dalai Lama, so that some countries take him as a political figure. That is not so. In fact, the Dalai Lama’s title is bestowed by the Central Government. Tibet has been a part of China for a period longer than the whole history of the United States. Tibet belongs to the 1.3 billion Chinese people and not to the Dalai Lama. To us, the Dalai Lama is a Buddhist, and that’s all!

3. Trade disputes.

Trade disputes are the hallmark of democratic rule as they represent the interests of the working class. To handle these disputes, we should protect ourselves through the World Trade Organization (WTO) and refrain from bickering and retaliating. We should employ more American lawyers to win trade wars for Chinese-owned companies.

4. Human Rights discussions. There will be more Human Rights legislation passed against China by the Congress in the coming four years than in eight years under President Bush. We should let Americans know China better. We could sponsor columns on China in the mainstream newspapers, such as the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal. Only through better understanding could such disputes be minimized.

These are just some humble suggestions from a citizen who cares for his/her country, the prosperity of our country, and the happiness of our people.