Expecting Obama

On Tuesday the elected American leader, Barack Obama, enters the presidency. At present the international Obama mania has noticeably subsided under the heavy weight of the economic crisis and the conflict in the Middle East: the political world is awaiting the first decisions of the new American leader. Meanwhile Russian pundits attempt to predict the course for the American superpower that the 44th resident of the White House will select.

Meticulously, Obama has tried to compare himself to the 16th president Abraham Lincoln. Both presidents represented the State of Illinois in Congress, albeit in different centuries. To remind our readers, Lincoln’s main achievement was the victory of the North over the South in the Civil War and subsequent abolition of slavery. According to Sergey Markov, the delegate of Russia’s Parliament and the Director of the Institute for Policy Studies, the 16th President “succeeded in unifying the United States.”

“Obama should pay attention to Iran. A change of power there would serve both American and Russian interests,” says Markov. “I don’t understand what Obama can do about Iran,” admitted the analyst. According to this expert, Obama resembles not Lincoln, but a widely grinning Cheshire cat. On the one hand, he is charismatic, and as the elections showed, convincing. On the other hand, while in the U.S. Congress, Obama failed to do anything significant. Therefore, Markov says, Obama may become a second Roosevelt, a third Bush, or even an American Gorbachev.

Regardless of which role model Obama chooses, the 44th American leader will encounter the same old problems. First and foremost, he will have to drag his country out of the economic crisis that has affected the entire world.

vice-president of the Institute for the U.S.A. and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Pavel Zolotarev is confident that Obama may encounter grave difficulties in dealing with this problem. According to the expert, the main causes of the American crisis are systemic errors, including the attempt to become the world’s hegemony. It will take many years to eliminate systemic contradictions that culminated in the economic collapse.

Clearly, fixing the economy is the priority of the Obama administration. However, sooner or later, the new inhabitant of the White House will have to deal with the foreign policy. According to Zolaterv, Iraq and Afghanistan will be in the spotlight of the United States’ attention on the international arena.

The relations between the United States and Russia will not be this administration’s priority. The anti-missile defense system and the strategic armament will be the main issues that these countries will discuss. Luckily, sarcastically notes the expert, President Bush initiated the process of “demolition of the armament control system.”

“The question of armament control will be raised again. Primarily in this area, the United States will collaborate closely with Russia,” assures Pavel Zolatrev.

The expert is sure that by the end of this year Russia and the U.S. will prepare a new agreement concerning the strategic-attacking arms that will replace the current expiring agreement. The two countries will also find a compromise on the anti-missile defense system.

“The new president will postpone indefinitely the plan for the strategic armament in Europe. There is no acute need for the strategic armament in Europe,” says the Vice-Director of the Institute for the USA and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Moreover, the expert anticipates that the new American administration’s conduct in the post-Soviet area will differ markedly from Bush’s team. In particular, questions of admitting Georgia and Ukraine in NATO “will not be raised.” That, however, does not mean that the Americans will give up on their goal of expanding influence in the Newly Independent States (NIS).

Besides, “questions of regional security” will contribute to the “rapprochement between Russia and U.S.,” posits Zolaterv. Political expert reminds that the problem of Afghanistan cannot be resolved unilaterally by the U.S. or by NATO. Russia’s help in solving this problem is absolutely necessary.

Zolatarev expressed optimism about the new presidential team. “Former U.S. Ambassador in Moscow Burns will play a key role, and he earned a good reputation in Russia,” says Zolotarev.

However, the expert cautioned the Russian readers against expecting an immediate change in course in Washington, D.C. “Unlike the Russian system, the American political system is not amenable to rapid changes. It is predisposed to gradual, evolutionary changes, and a political leader cannot suddenly reverse the course,” explained Zolotarev.

In contrast to his colleague, Mikhail Vinogradov, the president of the foundation Petersburg Politics, is not very optimistic about Obama’s team. According to Vinogradov, Obama’s cabinet is not comprised of kindred spirits; therefore, Obama is yet to encounter a host of intrigues in the White House.

Vingoradov thinks that Obama will have to prove to the entire world that he is a leader – and he did not move into the White House solely “to improve the reputation of the United States.” He will have to prove that he, not “other actors,” will have the ultimate decision-power.

In Vinogradov’s opinion, the problem of middle class will be the most difficult sociological challenge for the U.S. president. The expert underscores that Obama’s electorate is predominantly comprised of the very wealthy and the very poor. Obama will need to find out how to appeal to those who form the bedrock of the American society. However, Obama can work on resolving these problems during his entire presidential term. Mikhail Vinogradov agrees that Obama’s priorities will be revitalizing the economy and “laying out a foreign policy direction.”

According to the expert, in “financial” terms, the entire world anticipates a declining dollar exchange rate and a comprehensible plan on pulling the United States out of a deep financial coma. Vinogradov believes that the United States should prioritize Iran in its foreign policy agenda and pay a particular attention to presidential elections in Iran. “A change of power in Iran would serve interests of both the United States and Russia,” assures the expert.

However, Vinogradov does not share sanguine hopes of his colleagues that the United States will deem its influence in the NIS less important. The expert cites the noticeably heightened interest of the NIS countries in a relationship with the United States as the main reason for his position.

After the Georgian-Ossetian War, Belorussia and Uzbekistan have tried to forge a stronger relationship with the United States. In order to defeat Obama on the post-Soviet territory, Russia will have to take a more subtle course than it undertook in its dealings with the Bush administration.

“The issue of armament is a not fundamental sticking point for Russia and the United States,” says the president of the foundation Petersburg Politics. Nonetheless, the expert agrees that the United States will raise this issue during the first stage of its dialogue with Russia. Vinogradov opines that the question of the anti-missile defense system will be postponed until after the elections in Iran.