U.S.-China-Japan Trilateral Coordination Mechanisms Are Illusions

Professor David Shambaugh of the George Washington University proposed to the American government that the Obama administration should consider convening a trilateral summit meeting between the United States, China and Japan every one or two years, which would serve as setting up trilateral coordination mechanisms. This is a good idea, as it would be beneficial to the prospect of stabilizing the situation in Asia. Yet it is difficult to achieve because these three countries have their own interests, and it is impossible to harmonize their interests properly. It would be difficult for them to cooperate seriously.

The U.S. is certainly the key to this barrier: they have a close alliance with Japan as well as a strategic dialogue with China, and America needs both countries on different aspects. For example, the U.S. requires China’s help on the North Korea, Iran and Afghanistan nuclear issues and global economic crisis. Japan cannot meddle in these affairs. However, the U.S. needs Japan on the military security strategy, in which China is the potential opponent of America. Not to mention that the U.S. and Japan mean to stand against China in their security strategy. Therefore, the role of the U.S. is very confusing.

In terms of mentality, the U.S. and Japan still regard China as a dangerous communist country and there is a long-term threat. Whereas China considers Japan as an aggressive militarist and immoral country, Japan would attempt to allow the revival of militarism at any time simply by ignoring history. China has not changed its view on the nature of American imperialism; the U.S. advocates democracy and human rights because they attempt to subvert China. Although Japan has allied with the U.S., they do not trust the U.S. and always fear that the U.S. will abandon them and ally with China. These worries would be very difficult to eliminate in the foreseeable future and the big difference in the reality between the three countries is serious enough to hinder trilateral cooperation. Japan certainly is worried about the rapid development of the Sino-U.S. relationship and America does not prefer better Sino-Japanese relations, as it would be difficult to obtain benefits from the contradictions.

What sort of Asian issues would the leaders of the three sides discuss while sitting together? The Taiwan issue? Diaoyutai Islands issue? Korean Peninsula issue? East China Sea issue? Japan’s “Northern Territories” issue? South China Sea problem? Do the three countries have common interests on these issues? The stance on the Diaoyutai Islands stated by China and Japan these few days and the ambiguous position of the U.S. has clearly illustrated everything.