Obama Breaks the Taboo

The United States president wants to allow Iran to enrich uranium. On the other hand, Iran’s government must prove it isn’t doing so for military purposes.

Barack Obama wants to put relations with Iran on a new basis. Since his inauguration, he has mainly done so verbally, but according to the New York Times, he’s now prepared to make Tehran a concrete offer. Iran will be allowed to enrich uranium provided they agree to allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors free access to their nuclear facilities.

Obama has broken the taboo. Until now, the USA – and the Europeans – have insisted Iran halt all uranium enrichment activities as a prerequisite to any negotiations. Iran has always insisted it has a right to uranium enrichment for peaceful purposes. “It is our inalienable right,” was and is the position maintained in Tehran. In other words, both sides have been highly successful in blocking one another.

As revolutionary as Obama’s official offer may sound, it is characterized by recognizing reality. All the sanctions and threats against Iran over the past years haven’t been in the least effective. According to the IAEA, Iran currently has around 5,500 centrifuges operating flat out. Most experts calculate that this number is sufficient to produce enough material to construct two atomic bombs per year.

At the same time, the Iranian government rejects all accusations that they intend to build atomic weapons. Those who suggest that are called liars. The two sides haven’t budged one millimeter on that issue; if Obama’s offer is accepted, the Iranian government will be obligated to swear an oath of disclosure: Are they enriching uranium solely to generate electricity, or are they working on a bomb?

The answer to that question can’t be pried out of the Iranians by force, i.e., by sanctions or by war, but by the argument, “Alright, we recognize your right to enrich uranium, but you have to prove that you’ll be responsible in using it.”

That’s entirely in keeping with the spirit of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) to which Iran is already a signatory. According to the NPT, all signers have the right to enrich uranium (the NPT goes so far as to say that they must actually be given technical assistance in doing so), but members must guarantee they are doing so for peaceful purposes only. Any nation suspected of doing otherwise must allow IAEA inspectors to verify that the country is abiding by the rules.

But what happens if Iran doesn’t open its doors despite accepting the offer? Many questions then arise that must be dealt with by the negotiating partners. One might even ask if Iran has any credibility as a negotiating partner.

The offer from Washington, therefore also contains a threat. If Iran refuses to play ball, the drums of war will get louder and the arguments against military action will be muted.