The Beginning of the End

With the retreat of U.S. troops to rural bases, Iraq has, at least formally, recovered military control over its cities. After six years, it is the beginning of the end of the American occupation of that Arab country, pending the 2011 bilateral security pact signed between Washington and Baghdad. Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi prime minister, has attached crucial political importance to the retreat that plays out like a heroic expulsion of the foreign occupants and, adding to the folklore, compares it with the 1920 rebellions of the Iraqi tribes against the British. Al-Maliki would not be in power without American support and protection but, as a strong supporter of Arab nationalism, he knows how to sell events to his people.

Washington has been careful not to cast a shadow on the withdrawal, even if the urban retreat of its 130,000 soldiers is merely a symbolic step. Many of the U.S. troops will be stationed at bases next to the cities, where they can assist the Iraqi security forces as needed. In the last few days some of the bloodiest terrorist attacks in a long time have taken place in Kirkuk and Baghdad. It is yet to be determined if it is the final challenge to the American retreat or, on the contrary, a return of terrorism. In any case, the degree of violence in Iraq during the next months will be determined by the ability of the Arabs and Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis to successfully manage the conflicts that have brought them to the verge of civil war.

Security, in comparison to the nightmarish years of 2006 and 2007, has substantially improved in Iraq mainly due to the adjusted strategy of the occupying forces. But the political situation is far from settled. The tension between Baghdad and the Kurds keeps rising and the Iraqi parties are still divided among small factions. In the parliamentary elections at the beginning of next year, both Maliki, the first beneficiary of the retreat, and the fragile democracy of his country will be put to the test.

The fact that the haughty Prime Minister publicly acknowledges the military’s capacity to repel any threat, however, leaves him little space to maneuver if the security in Iraq gets worse with the American retreat.