Obama’s Moment of Truth

For Barack Obama, the moment of truth is approaching. The battle that he began for healthcare reform is the deciding factor for the remainder of his presidency.

Extending medical coverage to all Americans, of which 47 million are now deprived, constitutes a flagship project that inevitably will set the tone for the Obama years. It was one of the great promises of his campaign and it must be the principal result, in domestic policy, of his first term.

To succeed, the president cannot wait. Six months after his arrival in the White House, he has promised to bring the reform to a vote before the summer legislative recess at the beginning of August. He is in such a rush because the political calendar is very tight in Congress, where the time to act for the passage of major reforms will quickly end. As of autumn, the representatives are no longer going to be thinking of anything but their reelection, which occurs one year later. As for the president, his “honeymoon” is ending.

The economic crisis does not help. Up until now, it has been necessary to attend to the most urgent things and to get the stimulus plans passed. Reforms had to wait. And the deficit has widened so much that there is no longer even a little space to maneuver.

No matter how popular Barack Obama still is – more than most Democratic politicians – and no matter how greatly his party dominates the two chambers of Congress, the adoption of the reform is far from achieved.

Wednesday evening, during his press conference, Barack Obama was on the defensive, not managing to explain clearly how the reform would be funded without weighing on public finances.

The cohesion of the Democratic party is being put to a difficult test. Taxing the rich is clearly the left wing’s recipe for reform with very progressive accents. That is the solution accepted by Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the House. But in the president’s party there is a very important current, that of fiscally-conservative Democrats. The latter do not want to hear about a tax on high incomes. In Congress, the two sides are tearing each other apart. Barack Obama is delaying breaking it up when instead he should impose his views on his own troops.

The Republicans have not yet recovered from their defeat for the presidency, but they know that they have the opportunity to prepare their revenge. The same strategy smiled on them at the beginning of Bill Clinton’s term when they triumphed over the reform of the healthcare system prepared by Hillary.

If they succeed in tripping up the president now, on such a symbolic point, the campaign for the midterm elections will be wide open.

Barack Obama must pay attention. It is now that his first term is being played out. If he loses this battle, his political authority will be undermined.