The Return of U.S.-North Korea Relations?

During a visit with Chinese premier Wen Jiabao two days ago, North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il expressed that denuclearization of the Korean peninsula is his nation’s current policy, and they are willing to engage in multilateral talks, including resuming the six-party talks. The condition, however, is that the United States change relations between them from hostile to peaceful.

Kim Jong-Il’s position on this issue represents a significant change in policy and holds hope for positive developments. In April, North Korea announced that they were withdrawing from the six-party talks “for good,” and proceeded to carry out underground nuclear and missile tests in the face of global opposition, resulting in renewed isolation and increased economic sanctions from the UN Security Council.

Although the official reason for Chinese premier Wen Jiabao’s recent visit to Pyongyang was to celebrate sixty years of relations between the two nations and attend the “China-North Korea Friendship Year” event, the nuclear issue was undoubtedly of high priority as well. As this has been the first visit to Pyongyang by a Chinese leader in many years and the global community has great hopes for denuclearization progress.

As a long-term ally of North Korea, Beijing certainly understands the Kim Jong-Il administration and refrained from defining a clear stance on nuclearization to avoid raising hopes. They also emphasized friendship and cooperation to make North Korea feel respected, preserve its dignity, and persuade it to change its position.

In many ways, Kim Jong-Il’s change of heart is merely posturing. Nonetheless, without this initial stance, there will be no future developments or breakthroughs in the current stalemate. This represents the success of China’s “quiet diplomacy,” and shows that it retains significant influence on North Korea.

There have been rough spots in recent China-North Korea relations, and disagreements over the nuclear issue in particular have eroded mutual trust. In the past, North Korea has attempted to take advantage of conflicts between China, the U.S. and Russia, but now they are taking the opportunity of this visit and sparing no effort to gain China’s favor, probably because they have realized their position and the necessity to maintain positive relations with the world powers.

In theory, Kim Jong-Il’s decision to return to the negotiation table could thaw U.S.-North Korea relations and resume the denuclearization progress, which has stalled for the past half year. Regardless of how the situation unfolds, however, this new policy change is commendable.

However, North Korea’s renewed determination that improved relations with the U.S. are prerequisite to its return to the six-party talks places these relations squarely at the focus of the issue. Not long ago, the U.S. expressed willingness to hold direct talks with North Korea, and yesterday reiterated that position. However, it remains to be seen if the U.S. is willing for improved relations to be a prerequisite for multilateral talks.

If Washington accepts this prerequisite, then the international community’s hope for resolution rests upon improved relations, but if they refuse, talks cannot resume. The decision is an important one.

In the past, the U.S. and other nations pressured China by calling on it to use its influence to change North Korean policy. Now, due to North Korea’s policy change in response to the premier’s visit, China is enjoying prestige, and the pressure shifts to the U.S. Will it resume direct talks with North Korea? Will relations improve? North Korea still needs to display their renewed commitment to the six-party Talks.