Obama’s Big Gamble

President Obama finally put to rest speculation by announcing on Tuesday the deployment of 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan. His biggest challenge was not to explain the necessity of deploying such a large number of troops into Afghanistan, nor to convince the American public to accept the expenditure of $30 billion more for the war, but how to figure out when the war should end.

When Obama announced the new Afghan strategy, he mentioned an 18-month timeline for U.S. disengagement, frightening Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan has always been worried that the U.S. would retract suddenly and leave it to face the Taliban alone.

The dilemma facing the U.S. and its NATO allies is when, exactly, can the troops leave completely.

However, the U.S.’s allies are skeptical about the plan to reform Afghan military in 18 months. The concerns stem from Hamid Karzai’s government and its reputation for being useless and corrupt. The U.S.’s NATO allies are uncertain of what kind of assistance the Afghan army can provide and how the country will turn out politically once the foreign forces leave.

For a Taliban government whose military power is far behind the U.S., UK and other countries present in Afghanistan, time is their weapon. The Taliban are indeed happy now as they are waiting for the foreign troops to leave Afghanistan.

The U.S.’s war in Afghanistan might be another blunder like the Vietnam War and may end up similar to the USSR’s war in Afghanistan. Then again, Afghanistan could fall into another civil war.

Obama put forth a timeline because he is optimistic and overconfident about his new strategy. He has not considered that this indeed affects the other allies psychologically.

For Obama, winner of a Nobel Peace Prize, this not-so-peaceful strategy will turn out to be his biggest political gamble.