2010 Could Be Obama’s Year

Until now, Barack Obama has been the president of great hopes, great promises, and great expectations. Now, at the close of the year, his success record is open to scrutiny. He halted the freefall threatening the world’s largest economy. Still, unemployment in the United States is at record levels, and America is still feeling the effects of the recession, even though the statistics are showing a return to growth.

None of Obama’s most important domestic reform projects – those of health, environment, and financial markets – have passed Congress despite the fact that Obama’s own party has a majority in both houses. Guantanamo will someday be closed, perhaps, but not by the 22nd of January as he has promised.

On the foreign policy front, there is also little he can check off his to-do list. The meager accomplishments at Copenhagen are not likely to be celebrated by anyone in Washington. By year’s end, the deadline Obama set for Iran to show its willingness to negotiate its controversial nuclear program will be up; his offer to negotiate has thus far fallen on deaf ears in Tehran. There is little movement on peace in the Middle East, and even the nuclear arms reduction talks with Russia seem to have ground to a standstill. In Afghanistan, he continues to commit more troops.

Undignified Haggling

All this has had a sobering effect on the United States and the rest of the world. Obama is seen as a president of pretty words and not much else. However, that premature verdict obviously misjudges what Obama has set in motion. He sowed seeds a great deal during his first year in office in anticipation of a bumper crop later. His first important success is imminent with the approaching passage of a healthcare reform bill.

Following the House vote, the Senate is poised to approve the legislation on Christmas Eve day. There will be difficult negotiations in reconciling the two bills and a vote on final approval will take place next year. Obama’s chances for success where so many before him have failed look better than ever. If all goes well, the 44th President may be able to claim success on the first anniversary of his inauguration on an initiative Richard Nixon could not bring about and upon which Bill Clinton came to grief.

If that happens, perceptions of Obama will also change, especially if he is successful in producing new results elsewhere. It is at least imaginable that 2010 could develop into Obama’s year. If the unemployment rate declines, further reforms follow the healthcare bill, the planned withdrawal from Iraq runs a relatively smooth course, and bipartisan policies begin to catch hold, the possibility is there. On the other hand, it is also possible that getting healthcare reform passed will have exhausted this president’s powers.

The healthcare debate eventually degenerated into an undignified squabbling to win votes and soothe vanities while ultimately resulting in deep divisions among Democrats. The most likely result – healthcare insurance for at least 30 million citizens who previously had none – will become a reality despite the cheesy compromises. In the wake of healthcare reform, it remains to be seen whether Obama will be able to pull off other victories in the face of Republican obstructionism before the 2010 congressional elections.