Our Wager on Obama

It is hard to imagine an indifference greater than George W. Bush’s toward what happens outside the borders of the United States, but Barack Obama is at pains to demonstrate even greater and maybe even record-breaking lackadaisical attitude. In just over one year in power, the president predestined to bury the unpleasant and warmongering unilateralism of his republican predecessor is but a shadow of what he was.

The difficult year of 2009, a year to forget, began with the financial crisis and the economic recession pushing unemployment rates to hundreds of thousands of Americans and came to a close with the humiliating democratic defeat in one of its bastions, Massachusetts. Scott Brown, an ex-model and populist Republican, won the senate seat left vacant by Ted Kennedy, thus putting an end to the Democratic supermajority (that magical 60 to 40 formula) in the Senate.

This defeat is all the more painful, since it endangers all of the energy invested by the president to promote one of his most cherished projects, the health reform bill. Senator Kennedy devoted his body and soul to the health bill. In one of his last public appearances, he even thanked Obama for his determination in extending health coverage to all Americans.

As expected, Senator Brown has already announced that he will vote against that reform. The sinking of one of the principal programs in Obama’s mandate has soured the president’s mood and pushed him toward a greater commitment to internal issues.

We are observing the consequences of recent events already: the end of the illusion conjured up in almost everybody by the ascendance of a young politician who had promised to lead the fight against climate change, end the financial casino, establish a new economic base that will prevent the repetition of another economic crisis, close down Guantanamo and advance a just peace between Israelis and Arabs that will allow the birth of a new Palestinian State. He had also promised to put an end to the Iranian nuclear threat without resorting to arms and walk along with China in a new world order based on concord and not distrust. Not least, we were touched by the promise of a new alliance with Latin America that would calm all anxiety over interventionism, topped off by the end of the embargo against Cuba.

Internal politics will now dominate Obama’s tenure, at least until the elections in November 2010. At this point, Obama has one top priority: to reverse unemployment by creating new jobs. All other projects will have to be postponed or trimmed down to such an extent that they will have lost all their revolutionary spirit: beginning with the controversial health reform and finishing with immigration reform.

The poor Hispanics who voted en masse for Obama, with the hope, among other things, that this one had the decisive impulse to introduce a reform that would relieve the illegality burden from millions of their relatives, are now left with absolutely nothing, as the president requests more money to boost up border patrolling and videos in order to hunt down people without documents.

Latin America also seems condemned to wait for better times and the longed for encounter between the United states and its neighbors to the south. One could see it coming from Obama’s silence when approached with the incredible and unanimous request from all chief executives of the region to make a gesture towards the Cuba and lift the cursed embargo — a policy having the unique achievement of perpetuating all the deficiencies in the island, thus stoking Castro’s bonfire.

Conversely, his old European allies, who so euphorically welcomed Obama’s triumph, now see that the new tenant in the White House chose to skip the EU-US summit in Madrid, citing “domestic problems.” The Chinese have barely arisen from their stupor, which was caused by Obama announcing more arms sales to their “rebellious province” of Taiwan and his persistence in receiving the Dalai Lama.

It remains to be hoped, therefore, that in the next nine months leading to the congressional elections, Obama will manage to stabilize the economy and thus salvage the lost confidence of the electorate so that the Republicans will not take control over both houses. It is the only way we will be able win the wagers that so many of us placed in favor of Obama.