Confrontation Instead of Compromise

If Obama wants to survive, he has to take off the kid gloves.

There was a time when Obama’s deadliest weapon was the public spotlight. If others wanted to cavort with lobbyists, try influencing Senate committees or make political deals behind closed doors, all Obama had to do was go on stage and speak; the public hung on his every word and public debate almost inevitably took off in his direction. On Thursday, however, it didn’t work like that at Blair House. On the contrary, a contrite president had to sit for hours before live television cameras and try to survive the torturous debate over health care reform.

It’s apparently the most difficult point in Obama’s presidency thus far. It’s the point Americans call “make or break.” The only options left for Obama now are success or failure. Democratic policy advisors predict he will get this reform package through in one form or another simply because he must. If he fails to do so, his entire administration, along with his chances for re-election, is in danger.

Obama has yet to reveal how he intends to actually accomplish his goal. The most probable scenario is that he’ll finally take off the kid gloves and come out swinging. Because Republicans have no sincere interest in solving the health care issue (according to 54 percent of Americans recently polled), Democrats will have to get it done on their own. The new order of the day appears to be confrontation rather than compromise.

That won’t be without political risk. Democratic members of the House and Senate are notoriously unreliable and, less than 10 months from now, elections will be held for the entire House of Representatives and a third of the Senate. Because health care reform is so unpopular, most incumbents fear a humiliating defeat like the one they just experienced with the Massachusetts senatorial election. Neither Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi nor Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid can guarantee majorities, at least not for passage of a House-Senate compromise bill to enact the legislation — not even for reconciliation, which would require only a simple 51-vote majority.

The most important aspect for Obama right now is time. He has to solve this problem quickly in order to put enough distance between himself and the elections and to re-establish his ability to act politically. There have been enough delays in negotiations already. The danger of being left stranded by his own party in these circumstances is still somewhat predictable — as are the substantive shortcomings of any reform package approved by Congress.

If Obama fails? Then Hope and Change will have been put through the Washington political meat grinder to the point where governing will be virtually impossible. Barack Obama’s replacement in the White House will have to be clever enough to take on everything except important policy projects.