The iPad’s Double Stakes

The launch of the iPad can be nothing but a success. Between the hundreds of thousands of pre-orders and long lines of junkies who will be camping out in front of American Apple Stores starting Friday night, Steve Jobs’ new invention will quickly be out of stock. But, after the initial euphoria, will this tablet, which is being presented as something magical, have the same success in its duration as the iPod and the iPhone have had? Will it be sufficiently innovative to give birth to a new family of products and applications, midway between those of the world of smart phones and those of computers?

In any case, no one is nervous about an eventual failure except Apple. Because, to a certain extent, the future of the Cupertino firm, as well as that of a good number of applications creators, depends upon the success of the iPad in the process of passing from an analog world to a digital era.

Apple is engaged in a perpetual speed race against the followers copying their innovations, and to escape destructive price wars, it must regularly prove that it is capable of reinventing itself. If it doesn’t want to go the way of Compaq, completely forgotten in computers, or Motorola, which long dominated the market of phones before stumbling, or Sony, which reigned with the Walkman before rendering itself trivial, “Master Steve” must always be ahead. On its own, the strength of his design does not allow for keeping the up-and-comings on the technological terrain at a distance for long. To expand, Apple must not only improve its existing products, but must also prove that it can imagine new ones before its rivals do.

In the world of applications, the iPad is equally a challenge and an opportunity. It’s a challenge because this new digital output will obligate designers to rethink their trade. Those who propose nothing for the iPad except equivalent programs to those already offered via books or journals, or on the screens of an iPhone, computer or television will sell nothing. At best, new utilization will cannibalize former applications without the public or the market feeling stretched. But if this challenge to the imagination is raised, the iPad could also finally allow access to — in a world that has too often made the internet unprofitable — paid digital content. To activate the iPad, you would have to provide your credit card number. It’s up to the application designers to know how to profit from it.