A Secret Revealed to the Entire U.N.

May 3 was the start date for arguably the most important international forum on the nuclear issue — the Review Conference of the parties to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). It took place at the U.N. headquarters in New York. The U.N. is often criticized for conducting many boring and irrelevant meetings. But this particular conference is definitely safe from that kind of criticism. Like a good sporting match, this conference has everything to attract the viewers’ attention and build suspense: an absolutely important agenda, intrigue, uncompromising opposition of the key participants, emotions and an unpredictable outcome.

Even prior to the NPT conference, it was obvious that the “headliners” would be Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, with his absentee polemic, and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Both politicians, by the way, have already tested their strength a few days before the main event. Clinton accused Tehran, saying that it had “violated the terms of the NPT” and also predicted that Ahmadinejad would use the conference in New York “to try to divert attention and confuse the issue.” The Iranian president dealt a return blow by accusing Washington of having relations with the world’s leading terrorist organizations.

Meanwhile, experts predict that Ahmadinejad will, as always, try to prove (at least verbally) the peaceful orientation of Iran’s nuclear program. Also, he will bring up the “Israeli factor,” which is very inconvenient for the United States. As a reminder, Tel Aviv almost certainly has nuclear weapons, although it does not officially acknowledge this. However, no one is going to impose sanctions on Israel, largely due to the American position on this matter. Iran, on the other hand, is being pressured from all sides, despite lagging far behind Israel in terms of having ready-to-use atomic weapons.

Interestingly, the thesis about the unacceptability of double standards in the nuclear field resonates with many countries, even including those who have criticized Tehran for its military nuclear ambitions. Consequently, no one can predict who will win the main dispute at the conference, Ahmadinejad or Clinton.

However, let’s not forget that Iran has an ace up its sleeve. Largely due to the Bush administration’s rigid and uncompromising attitude, the previous conference on the NPT in 2005 ended in failure. It did not result in any joint declarations or statements. The new U.S. leadership, headed by Obama, is clearly positioning itself as being ready to take others’ opinions into consideration, as well as being the main opponent of nuclear proliferation. Therefore, Washington would very much like for this forum not to end in failure, and for a joint document to be adopted. Since every single participant must sign such a document, Iran’s consent is absolutely necessary. All of this is forcing Washington to act like a peon, and postpone its talks about anti-Iranian sanctions, at least until the conference is over.

As far as non-proliferation goes, the U.S. has already launched a campaign to win over hearts and minds. Recently, the U.S. and Russia signed a very important agreement to further reduce their nuclear arsenals. Now, the U.S. media is reporting that Washington is getting ready to present a special gift at the conference. It plans to reveal accurate data about its stocks of nuclear weapons. In principle, up until now, this has been considered classified information.