Sino-U.S. Relationship Not Necessarily “Mature”

The Global Times has published two reports in which the authors debated whether the Sino-U.S. relationship has reached maturity. In fact, the two reports just talked about the same thing from different perspectives and treated the word “maturity” with different connotations, so in fact there are no conflicts in viewpoint between them. Yan Xuetong, the author of one of the reports, saw the inequality and the harm to the national interest from the “maturity” of the Sino-U.S. relationship, and Sun Peisong, the author of the other report, speculated that both parties would make compromises based on their own national strength for the greater good.

If we take the word “maturity” to have many different connotations, the word is just a hodgepodge that may mean anything, and the future of the Sino-U.S. relationship will be unpredictable, mixed with hope and despair. Therefore, to say that there is a crisis lurking underneath the “maturity” of the Sino-U.S. relationship is not an overstatement.

To solve the potential crisis, we need first to understand it. Granted, the pursuit of the national interest depends on the national strength, but it’s not the only definitive factor, as the self-recognition of the national identity, to a certain extent, also plays an important role. China is rising up at an amazing speed, and her national identity is changing fast. Consequently, the pursuit of its national interest is changing and expanding correspondingly. Will America face China’s change and adapt to her new identity in time? Will America satisfy China’s pursuit of national interest, which is changing and growing continuously?

　　

The self-recognition of the national identity sometimes can be dangerous. If a country makes a false self-recognition, its efforts in pursuing the national interest will be in vain — whether by setting the goal at an unattainable level or by turning a blind eye on the easy ones — and when this happens, danger will be right behind. Earlier, an organization ranked China’s military power as second in the world. This false recognition pushed China to the edge of a dangerous situation. Take, for example, the South China Sea issue, which had been shelved in the past decade, but now, with all the talk about China’s national strength soaring and rising up quickly, China has to keep an accordingly high profile and make her stand clear to the outside world: The South China Sea concerns the core interest of China. Why? Because the recognition of the national identity decides which interests will be pursued. Rising up means that I have a say, more or less, in what happens to territories not belonging to me, and of course, I have the right to claim my own territory. Therefore, China has put high pressure on herself due to the overly fast change of identity, and like China, the U.S. will be slow to respond to these changes.

Thus, with issues like the South China Sea, there are potential military crises behind the bright perspective of the “more mature” relations between China and America. Why hold military exercises from time to time? A military exercise needs an imaginary enemy. Regular and repetitious military exercises are used to revise established battle plans, from macro-level strategic control to micro-level tactical details. Before World War I, the General Staff Headquarters of Germany had been brewing the Schlieffen Plan since 1891. By 1914, the war broke out, and there had been numerous military exercises in which the Germans had worked their battle plan to perfection. Thus, going from an imaginary enemy to an actual one is an important step toward a real war, and the continuous military exercises, as opportunities to revise the battle plan, are also an indispensable link in the process toward war.

Of course, there’s no need to be too pessimistic. The tendency to start wars between the two countries has been held back by the restrictions posed by nuclear weapons and the global economic integration, which is considered to be an unprecedented factor to boost world peace. On one hand, China and America are busy preparing for the potential war in case one of them finally crosses the line; on the other hand, they keep developing a highly dependent relationship with each other, with each being serious about its future directions toward war and peace. This, I’m afraid, is the situation of the Sino-U.S. relationship at present. Whether the two countries will walk toward conflict or confrontation will depend on cooperation between the two powers.