The Arithmetic of U.S.-Turkey-Israel Relations

Because of the meeting of the Supreme Military Council, the Constitutional Court’s ruling on the Constitutional amendment package and referendum squabbles, international affairs have dropped off the news agenda. A big reason for this is that the diplomatic world goes on vacation during August. These days, you can catch many diplomats in Cennet Sitesi, a resort area in the town of Bodrum. I decided to take advantage of this situation by laying on the table a topic that may not be hottest news item at the moment, but will undoubtedly be the most talked-about issue after September: Relations among Turkey, The United States and Israel.

Last week, we cornered a diplomat in a breezy area of otherwise oppressively hot Ankara to ask some questions about how he viewed these relations. Truthfully, I expected him to dismiss us with a, “Relax, we have everything under control,” but that’s not how he answered. Based on his explanation, I concluded that relations with Israel are stuck, while those with the U.S. are on edge. Here are some details pulled from the conversation:

It’s a pity that relations with Israel will not straighten out while either the current government of Israel or of Turkey is in place. All of Turkey’s efforts and decisions have been met with a spirit of paranoia on the part of Israel. Several incidents have laid the foundation for these sour grapes, including Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s entreaties with regard to Jerusalem; the appointment of Undersecretary of National Intelligence Hakan Fidan, active in mediations between Israel and Syria; Erdogan’s statements about Gaza that angered the Arab public; and his statement in response to the flotilla incident that there must be “apologies, reparations or a continued crisis.” Israel openly claimed that Undersecretary Fidan might share Israeli intelligence secrets with Syria and Iran, revealing the dimensions of this paranoia.

Things aren’t much different on the Turkish side; appointing an ambassador to Tel Aviv itself qualifies as a diplomatic penalty. Until there is an apology and reparations, this situation will continue. Turkey’s military embargo dealt a heavy blow to the Israeli army. This security dilemma between Ankara and Tel Aviv, neither of whom seem willing to back down, is shaking up the international plans to solve the Palestinian problem. During his visit to Ankara, British Prime Minister David Cameron openly stated that Turkish and Israeli relations must be restored — not only for the sake of these two countries, but for the sake of the Middle East peace process. This statement is an indicator of Turkey’s deep, yet “invisible” influence on the Palestinian problem.

Turkey’s relations with Israel aren’t the only source of trouble between Turkey and the U.S. The security problem with Iran is also damaging ties between Ankara and Washington. The scene in Washington is thought-provoking. The Jewish Lobby is squeezing the members of Congress, which it has brought under its influence through monetary contributions. Failing to return Turkey’s long-standing policy of “not stepping on America’s interests,” Congress members are channeling this pressure directly to the White House. One mustn’t forget that two key figures in the Jewish community are members of Obama’s core cabinet and play a key role in his decision making. In responses to questioned asked during his presentation before Congress, the new U.S. ambassador to Turkey, Joseph Ricciardone, reflected Congress’ general perception of Turkey. It is meaningful that Ambassador Ricciardone is coming to Turkey promising to “fix relations between Turkey and Israel.”

The second piece in Washington’s discomfort is Turkey’s open attitude toward Iran. The fact that Washington is beginning to talk about claims of “axial dislocation,” a shift in allegiance away from the U.S. toward Iran, a debate it had ignored until recently, is a key sign that relations are not going well.

I don’t think that analysts coming from Washington to Ankara see this scenario differently or paint a rosier picture. Yet, I have doubts that Ankara has gotten it right. In the government, the prevailing opinion is “America depends on us in Afghanistan and Iraq, as its missile shield. They can’t just sweep Turkey aside.” Let us hope so. Let the government turn out to be right, and let us not come out with a heavy price to pay in the near future.