U.S. Iraq Withdrawal Imminent, Poses Significant Challenges

The expectations of Iraqi commanders that American forces would maintain their contingent in the county until 2020 seems impossible to fulfill. Iraq may once again plunge into chaos.

Barack Obama must continue to withdraw the majority of U.S. military forces from Iraq. During his election campaign he promised to put an end to this mission. As new elections approach, eventually voters will start to assess his old campaign pledges. It is precisely the Iraq issue that was one of the main policy tools in the battle with John McCain for a spot in the White House. If Obama does not want to lose credibility, he must withdraw soldiers from the Tigris and the Euphrates.

However, the reduction of forces also has purely military motives. U.S. forces are already very tired of the Afghan conflict, whose end is nowhere in sight. Maintaining a contingent of 100,000 in Iraq implies a commitment of 200,000 troops; as one group is fighting in Afghanistan, their successors are getting ready to leave. That is a lot, even for the United States, which has serious budget problems and is trying to cut back on expenses in any way possible.

Moreover, the presence of 100,000 Americans in Iraq is no longer necessary. Most of the militias have been defeated, and resistance has clearly decreased. The civil war has actually ended. Iraqi security forces (the army and the police) are becoming more organized, trained and equipped. But limiting a contingent is one thing and its complete withdrawal something else. Is it possible that after the last U.S. division leaves Iraq, fighting will resume? After all, a breakup of armed militias does not mean their total destruction. That was evident this month, as the number of attacks — including bombings — unexpectedly rose.

If Americans do not want to lose again in Iraq, they cannot withdraw according to the strictly set time line, regardless of cost. The White House and the Pentagon are keeping track of the situation in Iraq. It’s no secret that those Iraqi security forces still need support, less and less of it every day, but still necessary. For example, this concerns needs for training, interviews or argumentation at various levels. Abrupt withdrawal of all of the forces could lead to the collapse of a carefully built plan. The presence of Americans acts as a deterrent. Moreover, U.S. counter-espionage intelligence activities effectively limit the influence of Iran and al-Qaida terrorists. Putting an end to such operations would ensure that Iraq would become an easy target.

The state structures are no different. They are weak and operate largely thanks to U.S. support. The threat is even greater, because the internal divisions in Iraq still have not been eliminated. At any moment, the Sunnis and Shiites could once again be at each other’s throats.

Though worried about the difficult situation, Iraqi officers have one more year of peace. Only at the end of 2011 will most of the Americans leave their country. A small group of military advisers, instructors, agents and special services will still remain there. However, it is doubtful that it will be enough to control the situation. The Iraqi barrel of gunpowder may explode soon once again.