And the Winner Is … Iran

Wisely, Obama refrained from declaring “Mission Accomplished”

In September, Barack Obama kept another campaign promise: He ended the “war” in Iraq and the 50,000 occupiers remaining will get a new title. In 14 months, they will also be leaving. Thereafter, the remainder of the occupying force will be limited to as many as will fit into the gigantic U.S. embassy in Baghdad.

That, of course, depends on everything going according to plan; ever since 2003, Iraq has been a no-man’s land between desire and reality in which real people, unfortunately, still have to live. The fairy tales are spun out not only by Americans, but also by the new Iraqi ruling class. Reality-wise, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s television appearance last Tuesday was almost exactly midway between past appearances by Iraqi Minister of Information “Comical Ali” — remember him? — who proclaimed imminent victory in April 2003, one day prior to Iraq’s defeat, and the recent outcry by Saddam’s ex-Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz from his prison cell saying that the U.S. was preparing to throw Iraq to the wolves.

“The wolves” Aziz is talking about are the Iranians. As al-Maliki announces (not for the first time) that he has regained total sovereignty as well as complete control over everything going on in Iraq, he neglects to mention that Iraq-Iran border incidents are on the rise. The fact that his government hasn’t yet been democratically legitimized because he’s still in office six months after parliamentary elections, he dismisses as a “minor detail” while America stands by in embarrassed silence. These are just Iran’s neighbors and friends.

Those factions in Iraq who fear Iran, the Sunnis and the seculars, see things differently and pose the risk of turning to anyone whom they see as a bulwark against Iran. We saw that before in 1979, as Western-oriented Iraqis supported Saddam Hussein as the lesser of evils compared to a Shiite revolution.

Most accounts of the Iraq invasion and the seven ensuing years concentrate on internal events in Iraq and the burden the United States took on in getting involved there. The most important regional ramification — which has international implications — is often omitted: Iran’s rise. This part of Iraq’s history hasn’t ended; Obama won’t be helped by claiming, “After me, the deluge.” In an interview with der Spiegel magazine, the narrowly elected Ayad Allawi predicted war with Iran. What will happen to Iraq in that case can scarcely be imagined. Obama was smart not to announce “Mission Accomplished” so early.