“Stoppage Time” for Obama

Having handed over the ruling on the continuation of the direct talks with Israel to the deliberations of the Arab League countries, the Palestinians feel like they have showed lenience toward Barack Obama. In soccer terms, they have arranged “stoppage time” for him. Legally, the appointed time was the end of the building freeze; when he fell short of convincing Benjamin Netanyahu to extend it, however, they didn’t quit the talks but instead granted the American president an additional opportunity.

So far Obama has demonstrated a poor ability to lead the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. He became entangled in the freeze problem, which, in essence, is a fruit of his initiative, and he has failed to extricate the involved parties from it. He hoisted them into a tree without having a ladder to help them down — and certainly not both at the same time. Which means that either Israel or the Palestinians will find themselves disagreeing with the U.S. as a summit of Arab countries, to be held in Libya on Oct. 10, approaches.

In Jerusalem, they assume that most of the American pressure is going to be turned toward Israel. They also have difficulty believing that either Hillary Clinton or George Mitchell has a magic formula to revive the negotiations, for they have already had plenty of opportunities to employ their creative ability — and nothing happened on the weekend of the contacts in New York.

Ehud Barak, who chatted with Clinton up until the last moment, brought to Prime Minister Netanyahu a series of propositions, ideas and possibilities as they came up in his conversations with the Palestinians and the Americans during his visit in New York. He does not, however, have in his possession an organized theory or tailor-made package of a compromise proposal. A lot of ideas could have been acceptable to the two sides — and this is the condition for their success — but they should be packed and united together. And there the negotiations begin to fall apart. This is the way it has been unfolding in past days.

Under these circumstances, Israel should prepare itself for a problematic period in its relations with the United States and certainly with the Palestinian Authority. This is indicated by the repeated proposal of Minister Michael Eitan to bring Kadima into the coalition. Eitan’s idea has accompanied the government ever since its establishment — and it originated from Netanyahu and went south — but there is no chance that Kadima would consent without obtaining far-reaching compensation, both in the composition of the government with its participation and the formulation of its policy guidelines.

The destiny of these offers — those both apparent and hidden — now depends on the White House. The ball has passed, or returned, to Obama’s hands. The coming days will show him pressuring Jerusalem and entreating Ramallah.