Moscow and Washington’s Bargaining over Iran

No one benefits from striking Tehran’s nuclear facilities.

Washington has officially announced the success of its close cooperation with Moscow regarding Iran. But unofficially, Russia’s policy against Iran is characterized as cautious. It seems that the U.S. understands the reasons for Moscow’s prudence; Moscow fears Iran’s destabilizing influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia. But Washington is not willing to take into account all of Moscow’s concerns.

In an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, a source close to President Barack Obama’s administration stated, “The situation is very serious because we cannot find a solution that would really give us a chance to stop Iran, who is moving toward acquiring nuclear weapons. Looking at how the situation is developing, we can say that now things are bad, but tomorrow they will be even worse. And tomorrow is a matter of months, not years.”

Nezavisimaya Gazeta’s source believes that an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities is possible from the political and technical points of view. “Either the U.S. or Israel could attack. But the question is: Would anyone want such a turn of events? I don’t know a single person who would respond positively. However, if forced to choose between the attack and a nuclear Iran, the military option will be seriously considered. It will not be the ultimate solution, but perhaps only a part of it,” concludes Nezavisimaya Gazeta’s source from Washington.

Until now, it seems that neither diplomatic persuasions nor economic sanctions had any effect on Iran. The source’s conclusion is, “We are moving in the wrong direction.” Washington hopes that increased economic pressure will cause discontent within Iran, which will force Tehran to reconsider its priorities. The source reasons that this may happen, but it’s possible that the changes will be too late.

Who’s to blame? Sometimes, the American press creates an image of a Moscow which, in order to serve its commercial interests, is ready to ignore Washington’s warning about the serious consequences of Iran becoming a nuclear power. However, it is known that Moscow drew the attention of Americans to the alarming statements of Iranian leaders about the prospects for the use of the atom in 1991. Back then, the Americans did not heed Moscow’s word.

Now Russia has its own reason to be cautious in everything connected with the Persians. And judging by the words of our source from Washington, it’s understood overseas that Russia’s motivation is not strictly commercial. “Russia does not want Iran to have nuclear weapons. But at the same time, for Russia, a nuclear Iran would not be the end of the world. Iran would not aim its nuclear weapons at Russia…but does Russia trust Iran? No. Does it believe that the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is good? No. Is it sure that it will be able to negotiate with the current Iranian leadership? No,” continues the source.

However, Russia is mindful of the fact that Iran can play a negative role in Chechnya and Tajikistan. The Washington source states, “Many people in Russia are concerned that if tension with Iran rises, it could significantly complicate the situation in the North Caucasus and Central Asia.” Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported earlier that the Iranians have succeeded in strengthening ties with individual Russian regions, in particular with Tatarstan. Russian experts have noted that Iran’s potential use of religious factors to destabilize and fuel separatist sentiment in the Caucasus and other regions of Russia cannot be ignored.

Russia’s commercial interests, in turn, include the sale of weapons, and the cooperation in the area of peaceful uses for atomic energy. According to our source in Washington, Moscow is trying to balance its interests with respect to Iran — it neither wants to help the Iranians, nor fight against them.

As a result, the U.S. believes that Russia is bargaining. What will the U.S. do for Russia if it agrees to take on the known risk of confronting Tehran? In the U.S., the 123 Agreement between Russia and the U.S. that has not taken effect yet (involving the cooperation between the two countries in the field of peaceful nuclear energy) is considered “compensation” paid to Russia for its tougher stance on Iran. The experts also suggest that the negotiations on the lucrative Russian arms supplies to Saudi Arabia are a “fee” paid to Moscow for refraining from military-technical ties with Iran.

Be that as it may, according to Nezavisimaya Gazeta’s source, many people in Washington understand the complex motives of Moscow’s cautious politics. He states, “But this does not mean that the [Obama] administration is ready to consider all of Russia’s concerns. On the one hand, it has to deal with Congress, and on the other with lobbying groups. In addition, Afghanistan and Pakistan are causing a headache…”

The diplomatic maneuvering between Russia and Iran is making Washington think. Word from Washington is that the U.S. still has a serious mistrust of Moscow, because it’s a very difficult partner that uses clever tactics. This is illustrated by the epic construction of Iran’s first Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant by Russian specialists: Iranians got power later than expected, and on somewhat different terms. “Their wings were clipped,” said the source, probably referring to an agreement on returning spent nuclear fuel from Iran to Russia.