Al-Qaida’s Little Victory

Al-Qaida is on a roll. For days now, European governments are trampling over one another to be the first to get their terror warnings out — only to revise them a short time later. Europe looks like a flock of security policy chickens.

According to the reports, several European cities are about to suffer multiple attacks by heavily armed terrorists patterned on the attacks in Mumbai, India, in 2008. The United States, France, Great Britain and even Japan are all talking about the terrorist danger especially aimed at Germany. Mainly, they’re all talking over one another.

Minister of the Interior Thomas de Maizière, on the other hand, announced that there had been no change in the security situation and warned against panic. European citizens are rightly asking what’s going on. Is an attack imminent? Has an attack been thwarted? Is the United States really warning its citizens not to travel to Europe? And mainly, why aren’t European countries all on the same sheet of music?

Instead of calmly and competently explaining the situation to Europeans, our governments seem to be acting like a flock of security policy chickens, often giving out contradictory advice. What’s clear is that intelligence obtained by the Americans in Afghanistan from the captured German-Afghan Ahmad Sidiqi about planned attacks in Europe has been now confirmed by independent sources. But that’s basically nothing new, since al-Qaida has been calling for attacks in Europe for years now. Previous attempts were thwarted because they were amateurishly planned or because the security services — often with U.S. help — exposed them in time. And that’s how it happened this time: European governments were informed several weeks ago by the Americans.

The recent confusion came about because the British broadcaster Sky Channel broadcast the old intelligence, portraying it as current and imminent, and other media outlets picked up on it without question. Several European politicians also obviously tried to use it for their own domestic political advantages. This was followed up by the travel advisory by the U.S. government saying travelers to Europe should stay alert to their surroundings. Had the Sky Channel not broadcast its story, there would have been no hysteria and very probably no ensuing travel advisory from America.

In the end, everyone decided they wanted to play it safe, just in case. Thomas de Maizière’s approach in this instance was, in contrast, notably serious.

Al-Qaida is still an opponent to be taken seriously. Over the last five years, however, attacks against Western targets reveal a disconnect between al-Qaida’s planning and its execution; a disconnect that is large — some may even say huge. Still, the hysterical nature of media reports and contradictory statements from officials contribute to the image of governments without control over threatening events. And that’s how Osama bin Laden’s terror group achieves its goals without having to actually fire a single shot. The world trembles in fear before them.

So what’s the current terrorism threat level in Europe? Should we be avoiding public places and large crowds? At the beginning of the week, representatives of U.S. intelligence agencies and security services met in southern Germany. After an exhaustive discussion of al-Qaida’s ideology, structure, capabilities and the current threat level, the organizers of the meeting offered an after-conference get-together for everyone at the Oktoberfest in nearby Munich.

The tickets went like hotcakes.