Possible Train Wreck in Turkish-American Relations

It is no secret that American-Turkish relations have entered a rough patch. Moreover, it is clear that this relationship is likely to get worse before it gets better. Our interviews with American diplomats and journalists, as well as input from experts, agree on this point.

Of course, Congress is the main issue. In Congress, it is clear that the climate is turning increasingly sour for Turkey. For this trend to change there needs to be progress on three issues: Turkish-Israeli relations, Turkish alignment with its NATO allies concerning Iran, and Ankara’s initiative to restore life to the Zurich Protocols signed between Turkey and Armenia.

Looking at current developments, it is obvious that relations between Washington and Ankara are not likely to warm up any time soon. First, Turkey is explicitly demanding compensation and an apology for the Turkish citizens killed in the Blue Marmara operations. This has become a question of saving face for Turkey. Like all states, Turkey is responsible for protecting the rights of its citizens. However, Israel has been intransigent in the face of Turkish demands, on an issue of saving face as well. Taking into account the composition of Israel’s government, Israel‘s stance is not likely to show any flexibility in the near future.

In this context, despite its strategic interests and obvious bias, the U.S. is overtly favoring Israel over Turkey. We saw this clearly from U.S. actions at the United Nations. At the same time, America believes that Turkish President Abdullah Gul missed an important opportunity when he rejected meetings with Israeli heads of state at the UN General Assembly. It is claimed that this only worsened the sour climate in Congress.

In terms of Iran, Turkey’s vote against sanctions in the UN Security Council is still reverberating in Washington. Additionally, Turkey’s refusal to comply with U.S. unilateral sanctions against Iran has produced a negative effect, despite the fact that Turkey has no legal responsibility to comply with these sanctions.

Our American interlocutors repeatedly assert that Turkey is seen as the “weak link” in the chain of compliance. The administration plans to reiterate its concerns when State Minister Zafer Caglayan visits the U.S. on November 17.

Additionally, it seems that Washington is holding Ankara responsible for the sluggish implementation of the Zurich Protocols signed between Turkey and Armenia. Turkey has criticized the Armenian Constitutional Court’s rulings on the protocols strongly as causes for this loss of momentum, but Washington does not seem to be taking these criticisms very seriously.

In short, Washington believes that Turkey did not enter this process in good faith. Instead, it thinks that Turkey is using the process only as a tactic to keep Obama from describing the killing of Armenians as “genocide.”

The fact that our interlocutors have labeled all of Turkey’s retorts to these arguments as “unconvincing” shows that opinions have ossified on the Hill. Under these conditions, not only the Armenian lobby, but also any group harboring grievances against Turkey seeks to benefit from this anti-Turkish climate.

Meanwhile, many congressional representatives are already so angry at Turkey over the Iran issue that they do not need any persuasion from lobbies. This general picture shows that U.S.-Turkish relations are unlikely to return to their previous level of closeness any time in the near future. Moreover, if other problems are added to the ones I have discussed above, the atmosphere is only going to become tenser. Some U.S. officials are even saying that without some good crisis management, U.S.-Turkish relations could turn into a train wreck.