Obama at the Crossroads

Today, the Democrats have a comfortable advantage of 59-41 in the Senate and 255-178 in the House, due largely to Barack Obama’s impressive victory two years ago, which combined his excellent campaign of hope with a strong rejection of Bush. But now, Obama has failed to arouse enthusiasm, and the target of discontent is he himself.

The unemployment rate (9.4 percent) is the highest since the great depression of 1930. Despite the billions of dollars from taxpayer’s pockets that they have pumped into the banks, the economy never took off.

It is true that the disaster was inherited and that he managed to avoid the collapse of the global financial system. But in an election campaign, “It could have been worse” is not as catchy as the slogan “Yes we can.”

Obama has had huge success, like the most important reform in history of the health care system; it expands access to millions that lack coverage.

However, the positive effects of such an ambitious undertaking will take years to work their way through. The epitome of absurdity is that the poor, the most benefited, are the ones who vote the least.

In the meantime, for the right-wingers, Obama is imposing socialism. The unusual success of the tea party is nourished by strong anti-Obama sentiments, particularly among working-class white men. The tea party takes advantage of rampant ignorance (close to 25 percent of the population believe that Obama is Muslim and that he was not born in the United States), feeding hate and fear with racial overtones. As ex-President Bill Clinton indicated, “A lot of their candidates today, they make [Bush] look like a liberal.”

The campaigns directed to reveal who these new Republicans are have already begun to have an effect. Some Democrats are on the rebound because many of [the Republican candidates] do not have any experience; some are billionaires with questionable pasts or eccentric characters. For instance, there is a candidate in Delaware who became a national celebrity by claiming that masturbation is a sin.

Nevertheless, there is a risk that the more negative a campaign is, the greater the apathy. In 2008, a historical 58 percent of eligible voters voted; the participation during mid-term elections is usually at 40 percent, which means that the disciplined right-wing vote, few but strong, weighs more.

The eventual defeat of Obama and the Democrats would have huge repercussions. The Republicans winning would not be the same “serious” sectors of the establishment, rather some dangerous and unpredictable fanatics. Nonetheless, even with a defeat, it is not the end of Obama.

Although the levels of discontent are high, he continues to have in his favor the fact that there are no high-ranking national figures that could dispute the presidency of 2012. The most visible continues to be Sarah Palin, who produces more laughs than votes.