Proposition 19, which will be voted on in California on Tuesday, has the potential effect of an atomic bomb: the vote is whether to legalize marijuana — whether to snatch away from the drug cartels a business that accounts for $19 billion annually in that state alone, which is more money than Mexicans send in remittances from the whole of the United States.
Perhaps surprisingly, the debate is centered not so much in the state in which the greatest quantity of marijuana is cultivated and where its use is already regularly authorized for therapeutic use, but south of the border. Not only has no Latin American government openly supported this audacious initiative, but those who have raised their voices the loudest against it have been the presidents of Mexico (Felipe Calderón) and of Colombia (Juan Manuel Santos), both committed to a strategy of relentless war against drug trafficking, even at the cost of thousands of lives.
Calderón maintains, for example, that “one can’t legalize and criminalize at the same time”; nonetheless, the supporters of legalization — among whom are found several former Latin American presidents, such as César Gavaria (Colombia), Fernando Henrique Cardoso (Brazil), and Ernest Zedillo and Vicente Fox (both of Mexico) — voice the opposite opinion, that it is precisely legalization that would deprive the drug traffickers of their business, which if nothing else would mean that they wouldn’t have money for buying arms (It’s a shame that all these leaders didn’t express this view when they were in power, rue the supporters of legalization).
Obama’s predicament
This bitter debate between supporters and opponents has spilled over to the White House, which has had to reassure its preoccupied neighbors of its unaltered commitment to firmly supporting the war against drug trafficking on the three fronts that have called for aid, direct or indirect, from the U.S. government: Colombia, Central America and Mexico.
It remains clear that President Barack Obama has no plans at the present time to bring his revolution to the thorny subject of drugs, which, as far as he is concerned, will continue being illegal.
It will be necessary to wait, however, for the verdict of Californians on Nov. 2 to see whether its explosive effect will be strongly felt in other states of the American union or in other countries of the region. In any case, regardless of whether the “yes” or “no” is victorious, the one thing that won’t change is the unstoppable demand of consumers — what is at stake is whether they will obtain their drugs by legal or clandestine means.