Why Obama Will Lose the Midterm Elections

For the midterm elections this coming week, it’s only about the degree of defeat of the Democrats and the followers of Obama.

Rarely is the prognosis for the midterm elections as meaningful as it is this year. And even more rarely are the consequences of the expected outcome so hard to calculate.

Tuesday, all 435 representatives in the House of Representatives and 37 of the 100 Senators (in addition to the 38 states choosing governors) will be chosen. And for sure, the Democrats, who for a while have dominated both houses, will experience a painful downfall. In the House of Representatives, the Republicans will most likely win all 39 seats they need in order to achieve the majority. In the Senate, the Democrats need to defend 10 seats, and that is not a confirmed thing.

Fight Back at Midterms Is the Rule

There are three reasons Barack Obama’s Democrats will most likely be beaten black and blue. The first reason is that the Founding Fathers of the U.S. endowed their countrymen with the concept of “checks and balances.” The key group of “independent voters” confirmed in surveys that they understand the principle of control and division of power from a party standpoint, and they choose to vote for the party not in power in the White House. This is the general rule for backlash at presidents for midterms (although there are exceptions, like in 2002, after the 9/11 shock).

The second reason for the forthcoming Democratic downfall is how they fought for above-average gains in 2006 and 2008. Their success, even in Republican-voting districts, was owed to the unpopularity of former President George W. Bush and the fascination with the grassroots Obama. This couldn’t last. A part of the Democratic dysfunction next week means also the re-establishment of normality.

Vote on the Economy

The third reason? “It’s the economy, stupid!” The president will feel the accuracy of the wisdom of Bill Clinton from 1992, namely that the voters make their decision firstly on economic conditions. The current administration is not responsible for the housing bust, the bank crash and the global financial crisis. But it was Obama who pushed his billion-dollar stimulus package with the promise to keep the unemployment rate under 8 percent. Actually, it is closer to 10 percent. That is on him, and not only the die-hard Republicans.

That is why the midterm elections will, of course, be a vote on the politics of Barack Obama. The president has documented this in the election campaign in two ways: First, he started with his jacket off and sleeves rolled up, and over the past few days, he has brought back his “change” rhetoric for the voters. And second, he kept himself away from conservative electoral districts and party members who are trying desperately to focus on regional issues and to ignore the man in the White House.

An All-out Victory Could Be Too Expensive

The contradictions begin with the analysis of the likely aftermath of a loss of Democratic majority in at least the House of Representatives. For the Republicans, who must engage on all fronts, an all-out victory could be expensive. A majority in the House and Senate could only be achieved if some populist tea party candidates (it doesn’t need to be the very bold ones like the ingenious Senate candidate Christine O’Donnell in Delaware) won on their tickets. That would leave the Republicans shifted far to the right. Such a party would, for many independents, no longer be a choice in 2012 when the important positions will be decided.

An American Dream

For the Democrats, who can concentrate their resources on the manageable number of “winnable” districts, the loss of each district is more and more painful. A Republican majority in Congress could end up being a positive for Obama. Should the job market in the next few years not pick up, he could attempt to pass the buck to the “Grand Old Party.” Obama could argue in 2012 that their blockade of his measures to strengthen small businesses or the economy prevented recovery. And should the economy pick up before then, Obama has every chance, despite his current miserable poll numbers.