Whoever Wins the Midterm Vote, America Will Come Out of It Even More Isolationist

“Americans have forgotten the rest of the world,” writes the international edition of Newsweek on the cover. A central issue of the last 10 years, the war in Afghanistan has disappeared from electoral debates; Iraq seems a distant memory, even if American soldiers are still in the streets of Baghdad; the rivalry with China is a menace taken seriously only when critics evoke the immediate and catastrophic consequences for the American economy. Iran is an eternal enemy, if never really tangible; the process of peace between Israelis and Palestinians is an inconclusive game for diplomats. All the other topics of foreign affairs (from North Korea to Yemen, to Turkey, not to mention the European Union) have finished in a cone-shaped shadow, completely irrelevant with respect to the internal economy, the only oppressor in next Tuesday’s elections.

Republican senator Lindsey Graham asks, “Has there been a serious exchange between any candidates — tea party, Republican, Vegetarian, Libertarian, Democrat — about what we should be doing with Iran? Have you seen one commercial about whether our Afghanistan strategy is good or bad? We’re within days, literally, of a major shift in power in Washington, and you would never know that this nation is involved in two wars, and looming threats face us all that could change the course of humanity and mankind. What I don’t understand is how in the world did this happen?” Global menaces haven’t disappeared from the scene, but what’s disappeared is their perception of public opinion and of consequence in the vocabularies of the political parties that will collide at the midterm elections. The dictates of American neo-isolationism impose public elision of each “issue” that falls outside of the borders, a reflection of an America preoccupied by the economic crisis, tormented by the unemployment rate and essentially indifferent to all the rest — the opposite of what was seen during the Bush administration.

According to a New York Times poll, 60 percent of American voters are convinced that the economy is the fundamental problem, while only 3 percent judge the war in Afghanistan an issue on which political affiliation can be based; the numbers published yesterday by the Washington Post say that the majority of Americans fear being unable to pay their mortgages. Just as the mood of voters is dominated by domestic concerns, so is the mood of the candidates: The Democrats expect nothing more than to tear down the myth of America as a “global policeman,” and the Republican narrative is being held hostage by the tea party, a force calibrated exclusively on the platform of internal power reform. Even for them an American that turns its shoulders to foreign politics is a victory.

Brian Katulis, a foreign policy analyst at the Center for American Progress, a think tank allied closely with Barack Obama, tells Il Foglio that “economic difficulties have certainly reduced the weight of foreign policy in these midterm elections, but the perception of global issues will resume with the 2012 presidential elections because they are inescapable facts. We have 160,000 soldiers in the Middle East, a strong presence in Korea, the Iranian dossier, as well as many things to discuss with Europe. I don’t believe American foreign engagement has been reduced, but rather it just doesn’t interest the people.” Much less the political parties from what it seems. “But they need to pose other problems again in this order: Iran, China, and budget cuts in defense. On these points the Democrats are united in supporting a low profile for America — even if certain choices made by Obama regarding Afghanistan caught the liberals off guard — but the Republicans have never been divided by foreign policy like now. Not even during World War II were there currents as distant as these.”

With the end of the Bush administration, the neoconservatives and their global vision sinked into oblivion, leaving space for the centripetal forces of libertarians, who in addition to cutting spending are disposed to reducing military engagements. Will the neo-isolationist faction win? “I believe that neocons will return,” says Katulis, “and even if they weren’t the same players from the Bush administration, a push towards the foreign will return to make itself heard. Even if it is evident that this important round of voting has cut out every discussion of the foreign outside the borders.”