Zhao Kejin: America Could Become More Aggressive on China Issues

The dust has settled from the American midterm elections resulting in an overwhelming one-sided victory for the Republican Party. There have been comments that the American midterm election will not have too large of an impact on American politics and Sino-American relations. This is a misunderstanding of American politcs. If China is going through the American midterm elections without catching the signs of brewing political trouble, it is simply missing an opportunity in regards to diplomacy toward America.

The core change produced in this midterm election was that the Democratic Party lost the intitiative and control on Capitol Hill. During the previous two years of the Obama administration, Democrats controlled the White House, both houses of Congress and a majority of state governor seats, which allowed Obama to be very comfortable in pursuing his own agenda. After the midterm election, Obama will be faced with more Republican interference. The Republican Party is about to appoint John Boehner as Speaker of the House, under whose leadership the “Commitment to America” agenda will be carried out. This agenda will focus on financial appropriation, the Chinese Renminbi exchange rate, the Taiwan issue, human rights issues and intellectual propoerty rights. Focusing on these issues can produce new pressure on Sino-American relations and possible new setbacks may arise.

First, the midterm elections have brought about an opportunity for improvment in the Sino-American strategic relationship. Given the Democrats’ loss of majority control of the House of Representatives, the biggest challenge facing the Obama administration is the overall tightening up of control over money matters. Until now, the American 2011 fiscal year’s appropriation bill has yet to carry either the Senate or House of Representatives. In the domestic political party struggle, both are sticking to their guns.

Obama is bound to set his sights at aiming to grasp the support of other countries. America hopes for a rapid rise in coordination with China about demands in the Sino-American macroeconomic policy. Sino-American strategy and economic dialogue are of great significance towards Sino-American relations and great importance can be given to them by the American side. Strategic Sino-American cooperation can simultaneously strengthen and move forward Sino-American relations and bring about an opportunity for a period of certainty.

Second, the midterm elections weakened the previous Democratic political agenda’s pressure on Sino-American relations. Before the midterm elections, the White House’s policy toward China was under pressure from members of the Democratic Party on Capitol Hill — for example, the Renminbi exchange rate, trade friction issue, climate change and the clean energy issues. Although the White House did not entirely agree with the views of the members of Congress, in order to be able to allow health care reform and the financial and economic stimulus plan to smoothly pass Capitol Hill, one can assume, Obama reluctantly yielded on his China policy. After the midterm election, these agendas being able to have any strong effect is seriously discounted. The participation of both houses in passing the Renminbi exchange rate bill is very difficult to accomplish.

Again, the midterm elections’ effect on Sino-American relations can put up a few new topics for discussion. Along with the Republican Party leading the House of Representatives, some of the old problems between China and America may surface in a new way. If we look at history, the Republican-led Congress is more agressive on the China issue than the Democratic-led Congress. For example, from 1979 to 2006, statistics show both parties’ interference with China by passing resolutions in regards to the economy: the Republicans, on security, human rights and intervening in the Taiwan issue, exceed the Democratic Party in number of resolutions. This signifies that with the House of Representatives under the control of the Republicans, the issues of security, human rights, intellectual property rights and the Taiwan issue can possibly give rise to a conflict hotspot once again. The Renminbi exhange rate issue could also converge together with these to trouble the development of Sino-American relations.

The Taiwan issue is special; the Republican party has no lack of pro-Taiwan members. For example, Ohio’s District 1 Congressional Representative Steve Chabot, after suffering defeat in 2008, staged a comeback. Before being voted out, he became one of the co-chairmen of the “Taiwan Connection” organization. Between 2001 and July of 2006, the Congress produced 47 resolutions which directly interfered with Taiwan. Among them, seven resolutions came from Chabot’s special hand. This fellow, in a single day, returned to Capitol Hill because he must continue to manage the “Taiwan Connection” which manufactures trouble for Sino-American relations.

In addition, the midterm elections will also have mixed effects on the willpower of Barack Obama. The American political scene’s changes can cause the Obama administration to use more natural resources, time and energy in the domestic political chess game. Any lofty diplomatic aspirations will be given a big discount, especially any goals in the area of economic and social affairs. Obama’s policy toward China will be under more control by the House of Representatives. At the same time, the Republican Party maintaining a position of unity will help the Sino-American relations in regards to economic cooperation. But in security affairs, Obama cannot but confront an aggressive Congress. Whether the dialogue will be partnership-based or competition-based remains to be seen.

(The Author is an Associate Professor at Tsinghua University’s Institute of International Relations.)