New Era and Opportunity for Obama

The expected happened. The House of Representatives is now in the hands of the Republicans.

The result was worse than expected for the Democrats. They lost 64 seats altogether. The Republicans, on the other hand, have just won their biggest victory since 1938, when they gained 80 seats. In the Senate, they managed to win six seats from the Democrats. They now have 47.

These elections were widely discussed in the United States. The general consensus is that the people are punishing Obama for the bad economy. The nearly 10 percent unemployment rate was especially considered as a failure. The independents who voted for Obama in 2008 now gave him a lesson. So now we must ask: Where did Obama go wrong?

But before we blame Obama, it is important to remember a basic principle of American elections. In the U.S., especially in the midterm elections, less than half the population votes. This time was no different. Participation in the elections was only at 40 percent. In presidential elections, this increases to between 55 and 60 percent. There are a few reasons for low participation. The first is the general apathy among the people. This is especially true for the moderate middle class. For the moderate majority, there is no real difference between the Democratic and Republican Parties. They look at how the economy is going, and they do not think politics is a serious factor.

The low-income population cannot even find time to vote, since elections are always on Tuesdays in the U.S., yet Tuesdays are not declared an official holiday. Therefore, factory workers and others in the low-income group who do not have the luxury to take time off work do not have the time to go to their voting locations and wait in lines. I believe this situation substantially brings down voter participation. In the absence of the middle class and low-income demographics, the political stage is left to the lobby groups who can shout the loudest, and radical groups such as the “tea party” who want to set the political agenda. The “tea party” is a particularly interesting formation. Their main agenda is the economy; their biggest problem is the growing government debt due to services like health care. They regard Obama as a dangerous socialist. Populist formations such as this one can be very effective when they are well-organized. Indeed, the tea party played a serious role in the Republican Party’s victory.

Now let us go back to our initial question: Where did Obama go wrong? I think Obama made the biggest mistake by not emphasizing enough that they had “inherited ruins.” In the eyes of his detractors, it began to look like all the economic problems had begun in his term. However, most of the problems were rooted in the mistakes of the Bush administration. For example, the deficit had substantially increased during Bush’s term because of low taxes and high spending. In a very irresponsible move, Bush decreased taxes and increased social spending while the U.S. was at war on two fronts. Structural problems such as the mortgage crisis that triggered the financial meltdown also began in the Bush era. However, the public seems to believe that all these problems began with Obama. Obama should have followed a more effective communication strategy regarding this.

Now begins a new period for Obama. The House of Representatives is now in the hands of the Republicans, who must now share the political responsibility instead of just complaining. This is an opportunity for Obama. If the Republican majority tries to paralyze the budget and taxation issues and make things difficult, Obama should explain the situation to the people better and openly emphasize that those who created the economic crisis are up to their old tricks. If he does not do so, it will be he who loses again in the 2012 presidential elections.