WikiLeaks Cables Lead to Crisis in Washington

The biggest damage the WikiLeaks documents will reveal is not al-Qaida or PKK connections but the language that Americans used for Erdogan and Davutoglu.

The WikiLeaks documents will severely ruin relations between Washington and the Turkish government. 250,000 documents will lift the curtain on the relationship between Obama and American allies and will definitely have much more effect than the previously released documents on Afghanistan and Iraq.

Because of this, the Americans are in a panic and are trying to lessen the damage by calling their allies. Hillary Clinton called several countries’ ministries of foreign affairs and warned about WikiLeaks. This week, she will meet with Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.

In fact, the American government does not know exactly what WikiLeaks will release. However, it is obvious that they have an idea and are trying to avoid at least some of it being published. The Americans have reason to be tense. As this article is being written, the documents have not yet been released. But as we understand from the information leaked so far, in the parts related to Turkey, there are three things which may damage the relationship between Ankara and Washington:

Claim of Turkish Aid to al-Qaida

In some of the documents it is claimed that some al-Qaida members are easily smuggling arms to Iraq from the Turkish border. But Ankara is pretty comfortable with this claim. A senior official said, “We are not in a panic. It is not possible to believe such a claim.” Why? Because Ankara has proved itself on military and intelligence issues in opposition to al-Qaida. It has been approved by NATO and historically has corporate connections with Western countries regarding intelligence. So it is not expected that the news from WikiLeaks about al-Qaida will be serious.

Interestingly, recently there have been several news items connecting al-Qaida to Turkey. International agencies are publishing news mentioning Turkey and al-Qaida together, such as news about Turkish members of al-Qaida and saying that a terrorist attack in Europe will be take place via Turkey.

I can’t understand, is it al-Qaida that considers Turkey as its new base or it is just wind of possible news? However, all the Turkish officials I have met believe that all this is part of a smear campaign against Turkey after the Mavi Marmara crisis with Israel. Ankara will certainly handle any possible al-Qaida related news from WikiLeaks within this frame.

Claim of Alleged U.S. Assistance to the PKK

Like an urban legend, Turkey has pronounced this a lot but no one has shown sufficient proof of this yet. There isn’t any file to be considered in bilateral diplomatic meetings. If there is a tangible connection between the U.S. and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) established from information by WikiLeaks, this will cause an earthquake between the two countries, and will especially affect the prestige of the U.S. among the Turkish people. To be honest, Washington has proved to be most supportive in our struggle with the PKK among all the other Western allies. Capturing Ocalan, announcing the PKK as a common enemy during the Bush period and all the military operation steps afterwards were all very satisfying for Ankara.

However, Washington’s PKK policy has always been colorful. There have been many different situations. From time to time, the U.S. has given permission to Turkey for its northern Iraq operations, and it is possible to say that the U.S. has neither combated with the PKK nor cooperated with it. Anyway, the U.S. does not believe in solving this problem only with military methods but with civilian methods and reforms as well. According to a senior official, “Actually, the Americans did not support the PKK. But it did not allow them to be destroyed either. They wanted to save the PKK as a balancing element.”

When the situation is like that, what can exist in the WikiLeaks documents? The people I met said that there is most probably information about contacts of American soldiers or intelligence officers with the PKK while in northern Iraq during 2003-2004. In those years, the Americans might have been in contact with the PKK about the security of the region they controlled. The only troubling subject could be concrete collaboration claims rather than this kind of contact.

Another possibility can be contacts between the PJAK (the Iran version of PKK) and U.S. officials. But it is not probable that this kind of troublesome subject will be in diplomatic cables. We might find this in intelligence reports.

Language About Turkish Politicians

The words used by American foreign affairs cables for Turkish leaders are expected to be the most troublesome part of all. It is known that the U.S. embassy’s cables from Ankara in the WikiLeaks documents will be a big problem. In both Ankara and Washington, the biggest fear is the release of these uncensored words. The fears have come true.

The ruling government party, Justice and Development (AKP), has had a fluctuating relationship within the last year with the Obama government. These documents show that the U.S. government does not consider the Turkish government a real ally. Even if the language is polite in meetings, there is a pretty tough language used behind the scenes. These cables will cause an earthquake in Turkish diplomacy. While Foreign Minister Davutoglu is in Washington, learning that the people he meets are addressing him as “dangerous” will highlight the mistrust in the relationship between two capitals.

Why does Ricciardone not come?

This week is so exciting for the Turkish-American relationship. On the one hand the WikiLeaks bomb; on the other hand the first meeting of Ahmet Davutoglu with Hillary Clinton after the Mavi Marmara crisis. But this is not the only issue between America and Turkey. Last week at the NATO summit, President Gul asked Obama this question: “When will your ambassador come?”

Interestingly, during the most tempestuous period of relations with America, it is weird that the U.S. ambassador in Ankara left Turkey in the middle of the summer; since then there has not been any ambassador in Ankara. In general it is normal to have only a few weeks for leave of absence; however, in this situation it seems that the embassy building will be without an ambassador for five to six months.

The reason that the Obama government could not appoint a new ambassador is the veto of Republicans in the U.S. Congress to Obama’s candidate Frank Ricciardone. Republicans are both punishing Ricciardone for being overly compromising in his past missions and sending a message to the AKP government about its tense relationship with Israel and close relations with Iran.

In this situation, the Obama government has three alternatives: The president will either use the rarely used authority of recess appointment to appoint Ricciardone, make a bargain with Republicans and reoffer Ricciardone or give up on Ricciardone. In my opinion, the strongest option is the last one.

Before this, the Obama government was unable to get the candidate for U.S. ambassador to Baku in Azerbaijan, Matt Bryza, approved by Congress in a very similar situation. I wonder what will happen now?

Of course, all of this will become clear by the end of this week, after Clinton and Davutoglu meet. For sure, Turkey will persist in pressing for its new ambassador. The important thing is, what will the U.S. do? The Americans will pay a price when they send Ricciardone to Ankara, shaping the position of the AKP in their relationship.