America and Turkey Dance a New Tango

Turkish-American relations are undergoing a new process of fine-tuning. Departing from the dangerous overtures of the recent past, a new, more measured relationship is being constructed. Efforts on the part of both sides are making headway for a new start. The Obama administration is sending a “don’t be too hard on Turkey” message to former troublemakers, as shown by the statement Obama made to Hurriyet over the weekend (“Our relations are resilient, we might have some disagreements, but that is not a matter for concern”).

This first indication of change was followed by important sensitivity from the administration concerning the Armenian issue in Congress. It’s clear that the White House is seeking to show greater understanding of Ankara’s position. In fact, last week an American delegation visited Ankara with the expressed aim of turning around the current dynamic in Turkish-American relations. This team of important former officials, such as Madeline Albright, prominent NGOs, and academics such has Morton Abramowitz and Henri Barkey, took part in the visit organized by the United States Institute for Peace.

The delegation’s stated aims were to assess the situation in Ankara, evaluate the direction in which Turkey is heading, and to perform fact-finding on location. Every delegation member places great importance on Turkey and knows the country well — and more importantly, they are all very close to Obama. These are not people who need to be persuaded when it comes to the reasonable positions Turkey has taken on various issues. The Turks in attendance, headed by Ilter Turkmen, shared their views. You can be sure that the meeting was extremely informative both in terms of its wealth of viewpoints and types of analysis. And although individuals known for their criticism of Prime Minister Erdogan were in attendance, their treatment of the prime minister was very fair.

The Old Big Brother-Little Brother Relationship Is Passed

I’ve attended many of these sorts of meetings, but the tone and climate of this meeting was like nothing I’ve seen before. The announcement published at the meeting’s conclusion is a testament to this fact. I will summarize my observations as follows:

– Turkish-American relations no longer follow the old pattern in which the big brother had total say over what the little brother could do. A portion of the Washington establishment recognizes the important role this new Turkey plays, but an important segment is still reluctant to accept this fact.

– The U.S. turning its back on the AK party is out of the question. Deep divergences of opinion will continue to prevail, but at the end of the day both countries will stay in the same camp.

– Washington now understands it must change its position. The U.S. is still dissatisfied with Turkey’s policies regarding Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, Sudan, and Syria, but it is reconciling itself with the fact that it will have to bite the bullet and accept these changes.

– The old “Strategic Partnership” is now totally devoid of meaning, and relations must be reconstructed around a new concept.

– Rather than changing its alliances, as some have claimed, Turkey is looking for a new place and is taking a new approach in the region.

– It has been repeatedly emphasized that Turkey needs to communicate this new direction effectively. Also, the United States needs to share its policymaking with Ankara.

The Position in Ankara Needs to Be Fine-tuned

This delegation’s main goal is to explain Turkey’s position to policy circles in Washington and change the direction of the discourse on Turkey. This tack is necessitated by the fact that fears of Turkish realignment are still resonating in Washington. Another aim is to help facilitate a deepening of democracy. In making progress toward these ends, the meeting and the announcements that followed were a positive development. However, it must not be forgotten that for this approach to work Ankara needs to do its part as well. This means fine-tuning Ankara’s policies, making sure the U.S. is not left hung out to dry, and softening policy toward Israel. After all, it takes two to dance the tango.

As long as delaying tactics continue to hinder progress on the Armenian Genocide Bill, we seem to be enjoying a narrow escape from an own goal. Pressure from the White House, failure of the Armenian lobby to muster enough votes, and the non-arrival of expected support from the Jewish lobby have launched the ball back to midfield. Everyone has been able to take a deep breath of relief. But sure enough, a new bill is on its way in April. If that doesn’t pass, then we have only to wait until next year when we will be faced with yet another attempt.

This pressure will continue until 2015 (the 100th anniversary of the genocide claims). Barring some unexpected event, the Armenians will continue to try to pass this bill until 2015. Only the protocols signed with Yerevan have a chance at stopping this process. But let’s not delude ourselves; our government in Ankara hasn’t held up its side of the protocols. Either the Foreign Ministry didn’t explain the protocols to the Azerbaijanis, or else our Azeri brothers didn’t pay close enough attention, but when it actually came to the signing of the protocols, Azerbaijan flew into action to oppose them. And, alas, Turkey would not disenchant Aliyev; Ankara capitulated to Azerbaijan. To put it simply, Ankara now overwhelmingly regrets this move. As long as new life is not breathed into these protocols, Turkey will not be safe from Armenian salvos. So what should we do? Is this torture to continue every year until 2015?