After Obama and Hu’s Meeting, Sino-U.S. Relations Are Expected to Struggle but Not Break

President Obama and President Hu, at the end of the summit last week, issued a voluminous 41-point joint statement. This visit, as previously expected, dealt with many transitions, symbolic ceremonies and even a joint statement. However, most of it was inherited from the previous statement, so there was not much that was new.

Of course, on the human rights issue, the two countries are diametrically opposed. However, on the Taiwan issue, each says what it wants. Many officials and scholars have already discussed it at great lengths, but this is not a new part of the bilateral relations. After all, in the past 20 or 30 years, each high-level talk inevitably touched upon human rights and Taiwan. Each side knows the other’s position, and having no differences would be strange. What should really be paid attention to is that advancement in cooperation between the two countries could stir up some trouble between them, but not break relations — even entering into the next decade.

In the middle of this have been two noteworthy developments. The first one is the issue of strategic security. Confrontation between the two has not only been slowing down, but the cooperation between the two has been strengthening — particularly corresponding to the situation on the Korean peninsula. The other is the issue of increasing economic trade, which will change each of their political and economic structure.

According to the New York Times, a Washington official was quoted as saying that at a secret White House dinner, Obama talked directly to Hu about North Korea’s plutonium bomb manufacturing, long range missiles, and the recently discovered uranium enrichment plant. This constitutes the triple threat identified by the United States, forcing Washington to take strategic measures, including redeployment of forces, changing strategic plans and strengthening exercises with Northeast Asian countries.

The next U.S. action will be after the summit. A North Korean reconnaissance satellite will be sent 200 kilometers into space from earth’s orbit and can reportedly take a picture of fist-sized objects on the ground. This information was deliberately released by the U.S. media and was aimed at deterring North Korea’s missile and nuclear development.

Hu Jintao may not know how to respond, but for the first time in the joint statement, he expressed concern for North Korea’s uranium enrichment plant. The White House, in a message to the New York Times, said the United States and Beijing are willing to cooperate on North Korea. After all, if the U.S. is to eliminate the use of force or a preemptive strike and choose peace, then they must absolutely help the Chinese.

China’s position has always been that the problems on the Korean Peninsula can only be resolved through peace talks. Each party needs to exercise self-restraint to avoid conflict. After the Cheonan sinking and the Yeongping Island incidents, the U.S.-ROK alliance, especially within the South Korean government, claim that the situation calls for a military solution. Despite having participated in Dai Bingguo’s shuttle diplomacy, the U.S.-ROK coalition insisted the shooting and aggression meant a willingness to fight.

Assuming a fighting posture cannot last long; Seoul has already said these harsh words: if Pyongyang doesn’t apologize and offer compensation, then no contact or negotiations. This time, China’s apparent influence on the issue came out two days after a secret dinner party. On Jan. 20, North Korea suddenly proposed military talks with South Korea, expressing a willingness to discuss the Cheonan and Yeongping Island incidents. The South Korean government expressed, however, that if they were to discuss how to avoid similar incidents in the future, they would consider joining such discussions. In fact, the United States also agreed that the South Korean government cannot ignore the Chinese peace talks — otherwise, they would have to find their own excuse for avoiding talks.

Also, before Hu Jintao’s visit, trade tensions between the two countries was the main focus, due to strong criticism from U.S. businesses and workers, the closing of the Chinese market, and the overvalued Yuan. But this time, Hu Jintao brought up $45 billion in business opportunities, purchase agreements related to clean energy, computer technology, transportation and other fields. Estimates are that as many as 235,000 job opportunities can be created, greatly helping Obama by eliminating a lot complaints.

This is all still negative correspondence. Particularly important is that Hu’s visit helped push Aviation Industry Corporation of China and General Electric’s joint venture of China’s C919 airplane project to enter the global civil aviation market. In addition, the world’s largest bank Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has announced a $1 billion acquisition of The Bank of East Asia’s thirteen U.S. branches.

When the U.S. asked China to further open up its market, China had also asked the U.S. not to use export control as a reason to restrict high-tech products export to China. In the past, because of security reasons, China has stopped restrictions on important U.S. assets, — but they are now starting to ease these restrictions. The Bank of East Asia’s acquisition, approved from head to toe by the Fed, would further deepen bilateral economic trade. This will inevitably affect the existing political and economic structures, representing the power of the U.S. economic trade forces penetrating China, but also China’s economic trade forces penetrating the U.S.

There are also security issues between the U.S. and China, probably because of arms sales to Taiwan, Diaoyu Island, and other issues that should be dealt with carefully. The economic and trade issues are also due to the U.S.’ sluggish economic recovery, struggles with the congressional opposition, and other hidden variables. But it is in the interest of not only the world, but both Washington and Beijing to find long-term cooperation. From this point of view, Hu’s visit is indeed for dealing with Sino-U.S. conflicts, the right of supremacy, and Sino-U.S. cooperation, hand in hand sharing the world’s turning point.