Obama Pressures Mubarak Not to Show Up for Elections

The Obama administration increased pressure yesterday on Hosni Mubarak to resign the presidency and allow for the transition to a democratic regime in Egypt, hours before the Egyptian president announced that he would not present himself for the re-election in September.

Through an emissary, Barack Obama had insisted he should not present himself, according to the The New York Times, though he did not directly request for his immediate resignation as protesters demanded.

Obama’s message, transmitted in Cairo by the veteran diplomat Frank Wisner, follows the same message as that of the White House in the last few days: An increase in pressure but always a step behind the demands of the Egyptian opposition, as it avoids rupturing definitively with its old ally to force a new transition without violence.

“If Obama had acted like a cheerleader, the multitude of Egyptians would have been the same, but the military’s influence would have been less,” wrote Marc Lynch, an expert on the region, who on Monday participated in a discussion about Egypt at the White House. *

The Obama administration, which was caught last week unprepared by the rebellion, has exercised caution as to not abandon an ally that has been faithful and effective to Washington’s interest. Mubarak’s Egypt has been a pillar of U.S. strategy in the Middle East.

Mubarak’s departure may disintegrate the regional equilibrium and undermine American influence. But after the initial uncertainties (the secretary of state said just a week ago that Mubarak’s regime was stable), the White House concluded that Egypt needs an “orderly transition”.

Until yesterday, no one in the administration had publicly asked for Mubarak’s resignation. It only insisted after some media of communication anticipated that Mubarak would announce his resignation during the election. Obama’s strategy has attracted support from Democrats and Republicans in Congress. In the conservative media, the fall of the Persian Shah is but a specter, an ally replaced by Islamist radicals, and the Muslim Brotherhood.

Frank Wisner, the diplomat Obama sent to Egypt, was an ambassador to the country and was well acquainted with Mubarak. The White House has not made it clear if it prefers the military to command the transition or to establish an internal government to be formed with oppositions leaders.

It is not clear either to what extent Washington has the ability to influence this transition. In any case, the United States president seems to want to avoid the image that it places and removes governments in the region in the tradition of Western interventionism.

The U.S. ambassador to Cairo, Margaret Scobey, spoke yesterday with the opposition leader Mohamed El Baradei, the first official contact with the opposition by the Obama administration, perceived by many as an ally to Mubarak demonstrators. The conversation is part of a “public action” from the United States “to convey support for an orderly transition”, in the words of Philip Crowley, spokesman for the Department of State.

The message delivered last night by the White House relates in part to what, hours before, was written in a New York Times’ column by John Kerry, the Democratic presidential candidate in 2004 and chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Kerry urged Mubarak to “declare that neither he nor the son he has been positioning as his successor will run in the presidential election this year.”

“He should not just declare he’s not going to run, but that he should work with the civil society — that means with El Baradei and others — as well as with the army to put in place a caretaker government for a transition process with elections in the very near term,” added Kerry, who is well acquainted with the White House and an influential voice in demanding the departure of Mubarak.

*Editor’s Note: The above quote, correctly translated, could not be verified.