Israel Fears Another Front

Israeli politicians and military personnel are watching developments in Egypt, with which they have a peace treaty, with increasing pessimism. They fear Egypt could change into another Iran and America could turn its back on Israel as it did on Hosni Mubarak.

A “day of rage” threatens to take place in Israel as it did in Egypt. As in the neighboring Arab states, prices for gasoline and foodstuffs are constantly rising. Labor union leaders are already threatening a general strike. But that’s where the similarities end between Israel and its Arab neighbors, where workers have taken to the streets of Amman, Cairo and Tunis protesting rising prices. Despite their displeasure with high taxes, most Israelis are equally worried about their prime minister’s reaction to the protests in Egypt: Benjamin Netanyahu has warned of “another Iran” should the Islamists in Egypt seize power.

Politicians and military leaders are tracking developments in the first Arab nation with which Israel signed a peace treaty in 1979. They don’t trust the Egyptian opposition over the long run. Amos Gilad, chief of the Israeli Defense Ministry’s Political Department, says with unusual candor that the Arab world is not ready for real democracy and that any democratic process would result in a dictatorship “that will make this area look like hell.”

He’s not the only one worried that more pluralism and increased participation would lead to the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood. But Israel’s dependable partners have proven to be autocratic rulers and not democrats. Former Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Arens told the Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz, “The ugly facts are that the two peace treaties that Israel concluded so far — the one with Egypt and the other with Jordan — were both signed with dictators: Anwar Sadat and King Hussein.”

Iran was Israel’s most important ally until 1979

The great Israeli skepticism concerning popular uprisings and elections in the Arab world comes from two traumatic experiences. Until 1979, Israel’s greatest regional ally was Iran. After the Shah was deposed, he was succeeded by the Mullah regimes that supported building up nuclear armaments against Israel. They also backed Hezbollah and Hamas and perhaps even someday would support the Egyptian Brotherhood. Against strenuous Israeli objections, the U.S. government and the European Union later said that Hamas could run during the 2006 Palestinian elections. The Islamists won that election and later seized power in Gaza, from which they would eventually launch rocket attacks into Israeli territory.

Dov Weissglas, former office manager and bureau chief under then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon rhetorically asked, “Is it democracy when they throw political opponents to their deaths from rooftops in Gaza, shoot them in the knees or execute women? No, that’s the result of an American misunderstanding that venerates elections but ignores the dangers of their outcomes.”*

Israel was particularly disturbed by the rapidity with which the United States abandoned its faithful ally Hosni Mubarak. This disbelief has now given way to the fear that President Obama could someday begin having second thoughts about America’s close ties to Israel, should it ever become a burden to the United States. Israelis probably read Thomas Friedman’s article in the New York Times last week with heightened interest.

Friedman warned, “Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu of Israel is in danger of becoming the Mubarak of the peace process,” and pointed to Washington’s growing impatience over Israel’s refusal to negotiate with the Palestinians despite the presence of a responsible partner in Ramallah. The Israeli newspaper Jediot Ahronot commented that the thought of the United States in the coming days no longer standing alongside Israel was horrifying, and it called upon God to prevent that.

But Israeli politicians and military leaders don’t see Israeli–American cooperation as acutely threatened. They rather fear a decline in U.S. influence in the Middle East, something they see worsening in past weeks under the leadership of Barack Obama and his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Even Israeli military Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi cautiously said that there were differing opinions in the Middle East concerning U.S. influence there. As he stated at the annual meeting at the Interdisciplinary Center at Herzliya, “Israel Must Prepare for Multi-front War.”

Since concluding the peace treaty with Egypt, the Israeli army has been able to concentrate on Gaza and Israel’s northern borders. The southern border with Egypt has remained peaceful. The suspected attack last week on the gas pipeline in the north that supplies Israel as well was taken as an early warning, as was the return to Gaza of a member of Hamas’ military arm, who had successfully escaped from a Cairo prison.

But not everyone in Israel is preparing to play the military card. In Herzliya, leading members of the Israeli military planning staff and the foreign office unanimously recommended that peace efforts with Palestinians should continue. They are worried that U.S. influence to bring about stability continues to wane. But Israel still has a moderate Palestinian partner in Ramallah with whom they can negotiate. This view is also shared by opposition leader Tzipi Livni and President Yitzhak Peres, although former Foreign Minister Livni recommended excluding the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood from participating in the first round of elections. However, she also said Israel cannot afford to wait until the political storms in Egypt subside and must therefore make strenuous efforts to settle the Palestinian conflict as soon as possible. President Peres concurred, saying that it was now necessary to shed the burden of the old conflicts quickly.

*Editor’s Note: This quote, though accurately translated, could not be verified.