Shaky Barack, Strong Mubarak

It looks as though the revolutionary declarations in Egypt, which began with such promise, will not end in the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak’s regime. The Egyptian leader, who looked doomed at the beginning, nevertheless has a chance to stay through his presidential term, which ends in September. Why?

First and foremost, because he displayed willpower and found forces on which to rely. A military officer, he decided to stay on the battlefield. Soldiers relate to him not just as a token sovereign commander-in-chief, but as one of their own. Having quickly removed the government heads, effectively making a gesture toward the protesters, Mubarak turned to the security officials. Omar Suleiman, a high-ranking military man and the head of intelligence, was named vice president, the first since 1981. He is well-known, even in the West, as a participant in various kinds of behind-the-scenes negotiations. A senior military man also became prime minister. The army showed the line that was forbidden to cross when it opened fire during an attempt by protesters to capture the Interior Ministry building, and then it contained them in Tahrir Square. All those who had something to lose ended up alongside the security officials on Mubarak’s side.

The most vivid picture of the revolutionary days is of the riders ramming into the protesting crowd. Who are they? Anyone who was ever at the pyramids has seen them. These people give tourists rides through the desert on their horses and camels for small amounts of money. When the protests began, the tourists disappeared all at once, and the riders were left with no way to feed their families.

The Islamist organizations, considered by Mubarak to be his chief enemies (a feeling which is mutual), were too anemic to initiate speeches. The “Muslim Brotherhood,” prohibited until recently, is the most organized part of the opposition. They joined with the protesters, but they preferred to keep a low profile, rightly fearing that stepping out into the forefront would instantaneously discredit anti-Mubarak forces. Now they are announcing that they will not even put a candidate forward in the upcoming presidential elections. But radical opposition exists and, I am sure, will gather strength. On Muslim.net, al-Qaida’s website in Egypt, there was a call to all youth taking part in jihad to move to this country: “Brothers, the fall of Egypt’s tyrant is a fall of the earth’s tyrants. This is the time to slaughter the cow.” There was declared a “revolution of Islamic people for the destruction of the heathen images of Crusaders and Zionists.”*

The events in Egypt have become a real challenge for the West. On the one hand, it was impossible not to welcome the people’s burst toward democracy. But on the other hand, there was talk about the chief strategic partner of the U.S. in the Middle East, the second-in-the-world recipient (after Israel) of American economic help, and the country controlling the Suez Canal, through which 2 million barrels of oil and petroleum products are transported daily. The European capitals stopped in their tracks in anticipation of a reaction from Washington. At first it called all sides to exercise restraint. On the fourth day of protests, analysts from the White House came to the conclusion that Mubarak was doomed. On Sunday morning, Jan. 30, Barack Obama’s special representative, former ambassador to Egypt Frank Wisner, flew to Cairo. He was to bring Mubarak a demand to not strive for reelection to the presidential post (this concerned his son as well), to enter into dialogue with all of the primary political forces, including the “unworldly” (that is, the Muslim Brotherhood), and to start the process of transferring power. Mubarak agreed with all of this and voiced it on Tuesday, Feb. 1, in a televised address to the nation. But literally after a few hours, Obama appeared on television and announced that the process of transferring power should begin right away, which involved Mubarak’s resignation. As with the wave of a magic wand, all of the Western media and the heads of the European Union countries at their summit took up the aggressive anti-Mubarak position, pronouncing him a dictator. All of this continued until Saturday, Feb. 5, when at first Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke in favor of the “process” under the leadership of Suleiman, and Wisner spoke for the retention of Mubarak in power as the guarantor for stability until the elections. The next day Obama supported Wisner’s position.

Russia, like the majority of other countries of the world, called on the sides to stand within the legal boundaries and expressed hope for a continuation of the strategic partnership with this very important country, where a third (85 million) of all of the world’s Arabs live. One of the consequences of the Egyptian revolution that may affect us is an increase in the price of oil (for the first week of the crisis it jumped by 10 percent and will increase even further until everything settles down), as well as the price of all tourist trips.

And one more thing — the growth of Islamic radicalism within Russia.

*Editor’s Note: This quote, accurately translated, could not be verified.