Egypt’s Turmoil Should Be a Warning to the U.S.’ Return to Asia

Three continuous weeks of turmoil in Egypt temporarily ended upon the announcement of President Mubarak’s resignation. The spontaneous protests by the Egyptian people were neither started by radical anti-American sentiments nor by anti-Semitic sentiments. They are also unlike the former U.S.S.R.’s Color revolutions, which were secretly backed by Western countries. The Egyptian people only wanted to convey that they have had enough of Mubarak’s 30-year dictatorship.

Regardless of the reason, Egypt’s unrest rattled the layout of America’s global diplomacy and also impacted the security situation of the Middle East. This situation and its development are ironic for America’s Middle East policies. From beginning to end, the changes in the White House’s response towards Egypt’s situation were inadequate, highlighting that in American foreign policy, there has always been a conflict of choice between democratic ideals and practical interests.

After 9/11, President George W. Bush’s belief was: there is only tyranny, despair and resentment in the Middle East, which will stimulate terrorist activities, thereby endangering America’s security. He therefore insisted on the implementation of democracy in the Middle East. However, driven by practical interests, the U.S. often has alliances with Middle Eastern dictators; they only confronted Iraq and Syria’s hostile regimes or terrorist organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah.

For a long time, America has been promoting democratic values in developing countries, but every time there is a conflict between democratic ideals and national interests, more often than not, democracy and human rights will be overlooked. Because Mubarak faithfully follows America’s policy and also plays a key role in preventing the rise of Islamic militant groups, America will turn a blind eye most of the time when he implements a perverse policy.

In the past, the U.S. has often dealt with the dilemma of their autocratic allies being ousted. In the 1970s, Iran’s Pahlavi Dynasty was overturned and in the 1980s, the Philippines’ Marcos regime collapsed, both proving that the U.S. supports despots, eventually bringing turmoil and damaging the U.S.’ political interests. Practical interests have also forced the U.S. to quickly adjust its diplomatic position, and especially when a tyrant is forced into exile, America often will add insult to injury. After two weeks of Egypt’s turmoil — upon seeing that Mubarak had lost popular support — it was at that time, through President Obama’s remarks, that the message to force Mubarak to resign was revealed.

The difficult choice between democratic ideals and practical interests are also present in the U.S.’ Asian policy. Due to America’s counter-terrorism efforts in Afghanistan, the U.S. has long supported Pakistan’s military dictatorship. Hoping to contain China’s military expansion, the U.S. is trying to win over the Vietnamese, Cambodian and Burmese authoritarian regimes.

America sees China’s rise to power as a threat. The superficial excuse is that decisions made by Beijing’s leaders and the development of the military are not transparent enough. However, the real reason is that China, unlike Egypt, is not willing to completely follow the U.S.’ orders. America will feel like its own interests are being threatened if any region’s or country’s political and economic development does not comply with the U.S.’s cooperative expectations. The problem is in America’s subjective thinking — perhaps it works on countries like Egypt, but against traditional military powers or rising emerging powers it may not be effective.

Since the American economy has yet to recover, many U.S. economic policies still have to rely on China. On the one hand, America is seeking the appreciation of the renminbi and opening up China’s markets. On the other hand, due to human rights issues, the U.S. is urging for democracy in China — they did not forget to continue playing the role of the world’s police. America uses containment policies to prevent China’s military rise. The U.S. has made many enemies in East Asia, the Middle East and Afghanistan, showing that they constantly repeat the same mistakes in their foreign policy.

Actually, many factors that caused the turmoil in Egypt — like high-handed dictatorship, powerful corruption, high unemployment rates, soaring prices or the increase in economic disparity, etc. — can all be seen in China. Having experienced the 1989 Tiananmen Square Incident, Beijing’s leaders should recognize the implications that Egypt’s turmoil has on China’s political reforms; otherwise, Premier Wen Jiabao would not have repeatedly expressed the need to promote political reform last year.

China is vast and their people are numerous; however, they still have yet to experience a period of mature democratic tutelage. If they cross from an authoritarian regime to a constitutional democracy too quickly, the resulting repercussions, if severe, could potentially cause extreme nationalism to appear, or, if light, would cause China to repeat the chaos Taiwan’s government experienced when they first became a democracy. Either choice will cause society to be seriously disordered, and in time the conflict that would spread to neighboring countries could possibly be greater than the current “China threat” imagined by America.

The strategic objectives of America’s return to Asia should cooperate with regional countries and should build and develop peace in East Asia. They should not, however, be aimed at military containment of a specific super power. Due to America’s misconduct of foreign policy, it caused President Carter to lose Iran, George W. Bush to constantly make enemies during his term and Obama could lose the support of traditional allies like Egypt and Turkey.

If the U.S. cannot learn its lesson from their mistakes in foreign policy, returning to Asia will inevitably result in large military expenditures because they tried to contain China. That will continuously deplete America’s overall national strength. Currently, the Middle East’s Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon, Bahrain, Yemen, Morocco and Libya are similar to Egypt in that they all have serious economic problems — for most of these countries, political instability is looming. America should learn from Egypt’s unrest.