U.S. Borrows Europe’s Defense

The U.S. is beginning the deployment of a ballistic missile defense system in Europe. In the first phase of realization of the project in the Mediterranean Sea, a ship rigged with anti-aircraft missiles, of the Aegis variety, has been deployed. While Washington’s actions do not pose a threat to the Russian deterrence force, the tipping point might occur only in 2020, when the U.S. plans to deploy a counter missile, the SM-3 Block IIB, which is capable of intercepting intercontinental ballistic missiles in Europe. Meanwhile, according to Kommersant, negotiations about the creation of a European ballistic missile defense system with the participation of Russia and NATO haven’t come very far. The latest attempt to remove divisions between Moscow and Washington will be undertaken later in the week when the vice president of the United States, Joe Biden, visits Russia.

John Plumb, the principal director for nuclear and missile defense policy at the Pentagon, reported Tuesday on the deployment of the ship to Europe for the execution of the first part of the defense plan. According to him, next week the missile cruiser Monterey, which is equipped with a multipurpose Aegis anti-aircraft radar, will leave the base at Norfolk and set a course for the Mediterranean Sea, where it will be on duty for six months. “Here is our first concrete demonstration of our commitment to the missile defense of our deployed forces, allies and partners in Europe,” Plumb stated. “We said we were going to do it, and now we’re doing it.”

In September 2009, Washington announced its refusal of the missile defense program proposed by the Bush administration, which would have placed ground radar in the Czech Republic and silo-based interceptor missiles in Poland. Then the administration published a new plan comprised of four parts. “The White House is confident that this project will be much more effective from a security perspective and cause less questions from the EU and fewer objections from Russia,” reported Lt. Gen. Evgeny Buzhinskiy, a Kommersant source who is an expert consultant for the Russian Center for Policy Studies.

Sending the Monterey to the shores of Europe was part of the first stage of the plan, which will be completed by the end of the year. Aside from the ship being rigged with an Aegis system containing a counter missile, SM-3 Block IA, this part of the plan also involves placing mobile land-based radar stations, AN/TPY-2. John Plumb confirmed that the land-based radar will be in place in Southern Europe by the end of the year, but he did not specify in which countries.

The second phase of the project must be completed by 2015. In this stage, an update to the land-based radar will take place, as well as the implementation of SM-3 Block IB counter missiles. It has been suggested that the missile battery for these will be placed in Romania.

The plan’s third stage will be completed by 2018. The U.S. will deploy SM-3 Block IIA counter missiles, one of which will be located in Poland. Finally, the fourth stage, which Washington estimated will be completed in 2020: In this stage in Europe, a SM-3 Block IIB counter missile will be deployed that will be able to intercept not only medium-range missiles, but also IBCMs with a radius of up to 5,500 km.

“Strictly speaking, we are only worried about the fourth stage. The first three do not undermine Russian safety. But the fourth stage, which will allow the U.S. to intercept intermediate-range ballistic missiles, would be capable of threatening Russia’s abilities for deterrence,” Buzhinskiy explained to Kommersant. “It’s no wonder that for us, the only stumbling block in consultations with the U.S. is this stage.”

Russia is also worried because at last year’s NATO summit in Lisbon, the Alliance decided to integrate a variant of their own missile defense system, which will cover Europe along with the American project. Moscow then introduced an alternative variant — which was specially revealed at President Dmitry Medvedev’s arrival in Lisbon — the creation of a joint missile defense system. However, as Russian diplomats complain, the negotiations about this system haven’t yet reached a specific conclusion.

In the words of the Russian ambassador to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, one of the biggest obstructions to the negotiations is that the discussion of the Russian proposal is taking place on two separate floors. One is in the Alliance itself, and the other is the Russia-NATO committee. “The NATO discussion is always one or two steps ahead, and we are confronted with a fait accompli,” Rogozin stated indignantly. “This is not the equal discussion that we took the floor for.”

The problem, however, is not limited to one form of negotiation. As the NATO diplomats admit, the Russian proposal has a number of parameters that make an alliance impossible. “The main problem is that it’s impossible to give Russia the same status in the project as the other NATO members. We are connected to the fifth article of Washington’s agreement, and we cannot outsource our safety to some gambler,” said a Kommersant source in the headquarters of the Alliance. This source, who is in one of the European missions to NATO, added that within the sector of missile defense, Russia proposed taking responsibility for the northwest region, which comprises the airspace above Poland, the Baltics and Scandinavia. But Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland (Romania is affiliated with them as well) are against this. “If we say that the system is created for protection against threats from the south, primarily Iran, then what difference does it make who closes the north? There’s no threat there, so giving Russia this region is logical,” Dmitry Rogozin countered.

A Kommersant source in the Ministry of Defense explained such severe far-reaching requirements as follows: Our headquarters firmly believes that the American missile defense placed in this region will not only be able to bring down strategic missiles that take off from Russian territory in the north, but will also be capable of making nuclear strikes on ground targets.

There is no rational explanation for such anxiety from the Russian military. These fears have not yet been voiced publicly, but it’s known that the view at headquarters is that the strategic nuclear issue is always treated extremely seriously at the Kremlin. At the end of January, President Dmitry Medvedev threatened NATO with the placement of a “strike nuclear missile group” on the border with the West if the Alliance refused the idea of a joint missile defense system. However, a source at the American mission to NATO confirms that the threats had no effect on the NATO members. “We clearly understand that Medvedev’s rough insults were aimed inwardly at the Russian constituency. Within the Russia-NATO committee, there is no Cold War rhetoric.”

According to a diplomat, the Alliance considers that it can handle the creation of the system without Russia. “The main reason we’re negotiating with Moscow on this topic is because it’s Obama’s desire that we encourage a fresh start with Russia. We would be perfectly fine doing without Russia, but out of necessity we are always looking back at them,” lamented the American diplomat. In addition, he notes that there haven’t been firm negotiations on the compatibility of the American-NATO and Russian systems for missile defense. “There hasn’t been a political decision yet; discussing technical aspects makes no sense,” the diplomat emphasized.

With these conditions, Moscow estimates that direct dialogue with Washington will allow them to more quickly convince NATO of the need to accept the Russian project. On March 9, Vice President of the United States Joe Biden will arrive in Moscow. A press release from the Kremlin stated that he will be met by Dmitry Medvedev. According to a source in the Ministry of Defense, during these negotiations the parties will discuss in detail all of the problems associated with the missile defense project. Consequently, for Dmitry Medvedev, the meeting with Mr. Biden may be an important step toward preparation for negotiations with Barack Obama. A source in the Kremlin states that the upcoming meeting will take place in May in Deauville, France.

“Although Russia’s proposal hasn’t been accepted, all the same it still remains effective,” notes Evgeny Buzhinskiy. “Talks about the tipping point in relation to the consultations on the creation of a joint missile defense system are not happening.”