The U.S. Will Remain in Afghanistan After 2014

The Pentagon will begin withdrawing troops from Afghanistan this year but does not intend to leave completely even after 2014. Then it will only transition to using joint American and local military bases, as it now does in Iraq.

According to David Petraeus, the commander of the coalition forces in Afghanistan, the bases will serve U.S. security interests. But an expert from Nezavisimaya Gazeta says that a continued U.S. military presence in the region will allow Washington to pressure Russia, China, India and Iran.

Two-thirds of Americans now think that there is no point in prolonging the war in Afghanistan, according to the latest public opinion survey. But the Pentagon is not inclined to listen to the voices of the discontented. That much is clear from statements made by Petraeus and Michele Flournoy, the under secretary of defense, at a recent session of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

In addition, Petraeus and Flournoy spoke for the first time without equivocating, saying that the U.S. has no intention of completely leaving Afghanistan in 2014, the year in which the allies’ military operation there is officially scheduled to end.

It is true that U.S. troops will try to avoid combat, and their presence will be realized through joint U.S.–Afghan bases.

According to Petraeus, the command in Afghanistan will be guided by the experience of Iraq, where U.S. soldiers trained, consulted with and supported local units. Flournoy has also specified that the U.S. will not aim for the kind of presence that other countries in the region could see as a threat.

Currently, the Pentagon is most worried about the ungoverned areas of Pakistan serving as havens for terrorists and insurgents. Petraeus called on Pakistanis to put an end to that situation. “[Y]ou cannot allow poisonous snakes to have a nest in your backyard … because sooner or later they’re going to turn around and cause problems in your backyard,” he said.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates also spoke about what to do about Afghanistan and about how soon troops could be withdrawn. After a trip to Kabul this week, he essentially confirmed what Petraeus said, that one way or another U.S. soldiers will remain in Afghanistan after 2014.

For the time being, the successes achieved in the war have been negligible, and the military situation is expected to intensify in the summer. Therefore, if troops do begin leaving the country in July, it will be in small numbers.

In an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Vyacheslav Mikhailov, executive secretary of the Group for Cooperation with the National Assembly of Afghanistan at the Federation Council or Upper House of the Russian Parliament, said that “the U.S. is developing bases in Afghanistan on a colossal scale. Tens of thousands of people are involved in the work. The main bases are located in Mazari-Sharif, Shindand, Kandahar, Bagram and Herat. Caponiers are being erected, and underground warehouses for aviation equipment are being built. Afghans are being employed as unskilled laborers. And specialists brought in from Kyrgyzstan are working the skilled jobs.”*

Experts believe that the U.S. would not be spending so much simply to abandon the country. Its bases will be used to put pressure on Iran, China, India and Pakistan. Washington also hopes to reduce Russia’s influence in the region.

*Editor’s Note: This quote, though accurately translated, could not be verified.