Dancing on the Rakes

The West is becoming more engaged and less subtle in helping the Libyan home guards to overthrow Colonel Gadhafi. Even so, nobody can give a guarantee that the opposition in Libya, now stronger at the expense of Europe and the U.S., won’t take aim at its teachers.

Similar events happened many years ago in Afghanistan. CIA instructors had been training Taliban soldiers to become warriors in a fight against the Red Army for years. As soon as the Soviet threat was over, Osama bin Laden led his followers in “a sacred campaign” against their teachers from Washington.

What will happen to the Libyan rebels when Gadhafi’s regime falls? Will they give up the struggle and return to a peaceful life? Taking into account that the Libyan economy is now in a catatonic state, the number of unemployed will be growing in an avalanche-like way. Presumably, the revolutionists, in a Gadhafi-free country, will have only one means of income: continuing an armed resistance.

But against whom? The coalition that watched the continuing carnage on the Libyan land from the air is giving the rebels cause for having a different view of their winged supporters. And they will do that the moment they no longer need their help. For instance, NATO bombers destroyed a convoy of revolutionists by mistake on Saturday, leaving 13 opposition fighters dead. It was by no means the first case of friendly fire.

Of course, NATO officials announced immediately that a thorough investigation would follow and reveal the wrongdoers. In response, rebels’ representatives in a revolutionary Benghazi stressed that an unfortunate incident wouldn’t affect the attitude of the Libyan people toward the air support from the West. Nevertheless, hotheads among the rebels, without doubt, will add all the cases to their arsenal as soon as they realize that time has come to start looking for other enemies to fight.

Western analysts are certain that there is a large number of people among the rebels who are ready, after getting rid of Gadhafi, to get even with Europe and the U.S. “The fact that the West got involved into the Libyan campaign doesn’t necessarily mean that a new regime, in case of Gadhafi’s fall, is going to be pro-Western,” said Stephen Kinzer, a professor at Boston University. “In reality, the current events in Libya play only into the hands of al-Qaida, which traditionally takes advantage of any instability in the Muslim world.”

Michael Scheuer, a former CIA officer, agrees with Kinzer: “Don’t forget that Libyan natives play an important role in the structure of al-Qaida.” There are also Libyans among those close to “the number one terrorist,” Osama bin Laden. Mr. Scheuer also reminded us that quite a few Jamahiriya citizens took part in a battle against the Western coalition in Iraq.

It’s possible that now they are joining the ranks of irregulars “on the sly” and are waiting for the right time to take the situation into their own hands. However, such developments, it seems, are of no concern to those who are thirsting after quick retaliation against Gadhafi. Officials from Paris and London are openly voicing their intention to equip the Libyan rebels with the latest systems of armament. A Qatari satellite channel, Al-Jazeera, reported on Sunday that Special Forces from the U.S. and Egypt are instructing them on battle-craft at a covert training range in eastern Libya. The report says the revolutionaries are taught how to use the latest armament technology: missiles with thermal homing. A whole lot of missiles were delivered from Egypt the other day. A few days earlier, Barack Obama, the U.S. president, sanctioned a covert operation to provide support to the Libyan rebels, according to the U.S. media.

Still, who will lead the attack of newly recruited Libyan fighters, trained and equipped in accordance with the latest trends of Western combat and subversive science? What will they fix their eyes on when Gadhafi is destroyed? The neighboring Algeria, it seems, knows answers to these questions. As soon as the Sunday news about the covert special training schools in the east of Libya spread, the Algerian authorities reinforced their security regime on the border with Libya. About 7,000 gendarmes and five army battalions were deployed to the east aiming to counteract penetration of al-Qaida soldiers from Jamahiriya. Once equipped, at the expense of the West, they will pose a real threat to any neighboring government.

Will the Afghan story repeat itself — this time in close proximity to European borders? No one can protect the EU from combat units that know the taste of victory and blood. There is a nasty situation on the Italian island of Lampedusa. Over 10,000 refugees, including some from Libya, have chaotically fled to the country. The above case proves that Europe is practically helpless in the face of a new and real threat.