How Far Can Obama’s Road to Re-Election Go?

Published in Xinhua
(China) on 7 April 2011
by Yang Ziyan (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Howard Segal. Edited by Heidi Kaufmann.
U.S. President Obama announced on April 4 that he will participate in the 2012 presidential election, which formally raised the curtain of the re-election campaign.

2012 Begins Now

According to reports, Obama released a video on that day on his own website that said he would be participating in the re-election, he sent an email to his supporters indicating that he would run for re-election, and White House officials said Obama would visit the Federal Election Commission to fill out re-election forms.

On the Internet, Obama emphasized: “This campaign is just kicking off. We're opening up offices, unpacking boxes, and starting a conversation with supporters like you to help shape our path to victory. 2012 begins now.”

A relevant party confirmed that Obama chose the method of sending text messages and emails and directly posting campaign videos on the website for the voters, intending to replay the online card.

In fact, as early as last February, Obama’s advisers started preparatory work on 2012 campaign issues and expanded dialogue with all circles. White House Senior Adviser David Axelrod has already left the White House to return to Obama’s Chicago headquarters and is responsible for the whole re-election campaign’s themes, advertising and other related content.

White House spokesman Gibbs resigned a short time ago, and it was widely reported that after Gibbs’ resignation, he would establish a public relations firm and pave the way for Obama’s re-election.

Obama’s Bargaining Chips

When Obama entered the White House, his public approval rating reached as high as 78 percent, which is truly rare. Obama has also been praised as a political superman.

But, in reality, the superman color is gradually fading. After Obama appeared on stage, he drastically carried out a domestic economic recovery program, health care reform and the reorganization of the United States’ financial markets, but he was hamstrung. A quantitative easing policy made developing countries glare at him. A double-digit unemployment rate made him come under greater attack.

During last year’s midterm election, Obama’s Democratic Party went into a tailspin and handed over control of the House of Representatives. The slightest mistake would cause an unexpected reversal, directly impacting the 2012 re-election undertaking.

In the area of foreign affairs, Obama declared he would withdraw troops from Iraq. But chaos continues in Iraq, and the situation in Afghanistan is also extremely precarious. His dialogue at the beginning of taking office has become more and more like the unilateralism of his predecessor, Bush — the Libyan air strikes are led by America.

Obama’s approval rating has again achieved a new low; a Quinnipiac University poll released today shows Obama’s public approval rating has already dropped to 42 percent. Besides this, nearly half of the respondents said that Obama was not suitable for re-election.

Can There Be Change?

Naturally, Obama himself knows that he’s in an awkward position. But the situation is not irreversible. In their days, Clinton and Reagan experienced a midterm-elections defeat, but ultimately both were re-elected as president. And the good news is that up to now, he has yet to have an evenly matched opponent.

There was a big shake-up at the White House where trusted advisers left, and officials with close ties to Wall Street were welcomed; the economic card seems to have become Obama’s main fight. The return of many Clinton veterans shows Obama has chosen to return to the Clinton path. And Clinton is believed to be the president who was best at the economy.

Everything that Obama has done has been centered around boosting the economy. Obama’s visits abroad to China and Latin America have all been to sign contracts and orders with these countries and regions for creating American domestic job opportunities.

Announcing his re-election campaign on April 4, the old Obama is scheming for tricks, because that day’s unemployment rate fell to 8.8 percent, a new two-year low at the time the data was freshly released. Additionally, beginning in three days, the United States will no longer carry out air strikes against Libya, having stood for peaceful means.


奥巴马连任之路能走多远

美国总统奥巴马当地时间4日宣布将参加2012年总统竞选,由此正式拉开竞选连任的序幕。

  2012从现在开始

  据报道,当天奥巴马在其个人网站上公布将参与竞选的视频,他向支持者发邮件表示将再次竞选,白宫官员表示奥巴马将会前往联邦参选委员会填写竞选表格。

  在互联网上,奥巴马强调: “选战刚刚启动。我们正在设立办公地点、取出筹款箱、与帮助我们走向胜利的支持者们启动对话。2012年从现在开始……”

  有关人士证实,奥巴马选择通过直接向选民发送短信、邮件以及在网站上刊登竞选短片的方式,用意在于重打网络牌。2008年他的85%竞选资金来自网络。有人预计,此次奥巴马可筹集10亿美元竞选资金。

  其实早在去年2月,奥巴马的幕僚们就开始着手筹备其2012年连任竞选事宜,和各界展开谈话。白宫资深顾问戴维·阿克塞尔罗德已离开白宫返回奥巴马竞选的大本营芝加哥,负责整个连任竞选的主题风格、广告宣传等相关内容。

  白宫发言人吉布斯前段时间辞职,坊间流传,吉布斯辞职后会成立一家公关公司,为奥巴马连任铺路。

  奥巴马的筹码

  奥巴马初入白宫时,公众满意度一度高达78%,实属罕见,奥巴马也被誉为政治超人。

  但现实让超人色彩逐渐褪色。奥巴马上台后,对内大刀阔斧地开展经济复苏计划、医保改革,并整顿美国金融市场,但频频受挫。量化宽松政策让发展中国家对其怒目而视。两位数的失业率更让他备受打击。

  在去年11月的中期选举中,奥巴马所在的民主党人兵败如山倒,拱手让出了众议院的控制权,稍有不慎就会马失前蹄,直接影响2012年总统连任大业。

外交方面,奥巴马宣布从伊拉克撤军,增兵阿富汗,但伊拉克乱局依然,阿富汗局势也危如累卵。上台伊始的对话越来越向前任布什的单边靠拢,利比亚的空袭就是美国主刀。

  奥巴马支持率一再创新低,昆尼皮亚克大学日前公布的民调显示,民众对奥巴马的支持率已经跌至42%。此外,近半数的受访者表示,奥巴马不适合连任。

  能否改变?

  奥巴马自然知道自己所处的尴尬境地。但形势并非不可逆转。当年克林顿和里根均经历过中选惨败,但最终都连任总统。而好消息是,目前尚未有势均力敌的对手。

  白宫的大换血,走的是亲信,迎来的是与华尔街关系密切的官员,经济牌看来成为奥巴马的主打。众多克林顿老臣的回归,显示奥巴马已选择回归“克林顿路线”。而克林顿被认为是“最擅长经济”的总统。

  奥巴马所做的一切都是围绕着把经济搞上去,奥巴马出访中国、拉美,都是要和这些国家和地区签订合同、订单,为美国国内创造就业机会。

  4月4日宣布竞选,老奥也费尽心机。因为当天美国失业率降至8.8%,是两年新低数据新鲜出炉之时。而且3日起,美国不再对利比亚执行空袭,有主张和平之意。(记者 杨子岩)
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

Hot this week

India: Peace Nobel for Trump: It’s Too Long a Stretch

Germany: Musk Helps the Democrats

Ireland: The Irish Times View on Trump and Ukraine: a Step in the Right Direction

Russia: The 3rd-Party Idea as a Growing Trend*

Germany: Bad Prospects

Topics

Japan: The Role of a Diplomatic Attitude To Maintain the International Order

Russia: The 3rd-Party Idea as a Growing Trend*

Germany: Trump’s Tariffs: China Acts, Europe Reacts

Germany: Trump Is Capable of Learning

Germany: Nerve-Wracking Back and Forth

Indonesia: Trump Needs a Copy Editor

Indonesia: Trump’s Chaos Strategy Is Hurting His Allies, Not Just His Rivals

Sri Lanka: Epstein Files, Mossad and Kompromat Diplomacy

Related Articles

Germany: Trump’s Tariffs: China Acts, Europe Reacts

Australia: As Trump Turns His Back on Renewables, China Is Building the Future

Indonesia: US-China: Tariff, Tension, and Truce

China: US Chip Restrictions Backfiring

Thailand: US-China Trade Truce Didn’t Solve Rare Earths Riddle