Candidate Obama Sits on Roses Yet

More than their European colleagues, politicians in the U.S. ask the question: What does the voter think?

For mere mortals, the American presidential elections of November 2012 only take place in a year and a half. A small dot on the horizon. But for American politicians — and the many consultants and observers who swarm around them — they are already taking place in merely a year and a half. A train approaching at great speed.

This is nothing special. You could say that American politics, apart from the honeymoon months that immediately follow a presidential (re)election, are always under electoral tension, because both the White House and Congress are aware of the fact that the voter has a say in the foreseeable future and that their personal futures depend on it.

Disadvantage

This constellation has disadvantages, but also advantages. A big disadvantage is that there is little willingness to make concessions and compromises, out of the fear that a change of opinion will be seen as a sign of irresolution and will be punished by the voter later on. Additionally, in the current highly polarized time there exists ideological fire, mainly of the Republican right wing, which puts a political focus on even more issues. The consequence is that only two weeks ago, it was only at the penultimate moment that a shutdown of federal government services was prevented, because President Obama and the Republican majority in the House could not come to an agreement on adjustments to the budget.

But there are advantages as well. American politicians, much more consistently than their European counterparts, ask the question: What would my voters think of this? Or at least: How can I explain this? The duty of being accountable to voters is much stronger. Politicians who mainly care about their position in their own party have little future in politics. It does not mean that politics enjoys a greater affinity or appreciation by voters in America than in most European countries. But transparency is certainly greater and thus the famous gap between voter and elected is better managed.

Excessive

In the American media there is also no lack of admonitory comments on the excessive politicization of policy, on the excessive attention for the “puppets” and on the fact that election campaigns take way too long (and cost way too much). But blood is thicker than water, and therefore the press cannot resist the temptation now to already preview the presidential elections of next year.

There are two good reasons for this. The first is that President Obama is now an official candidate for a second term and that he has taken up a clear position in the budget deficit debate. That deficit needs to be reduced over the next 10 years by the astronomical amount of $4 billion; acquired social rights will have to be decreased, but this is different from the proposition that came earlier from the Republican corner, as Obama does want to leave a safety net for the neediest groups intact and to let government play a leading role in the areas of education, retraining the labor force, clean energy and medical research.

Star

Second reason: All of a sudden, a new star has risen to the Republican forefront, and his name is Donald Trump. A figure whose background qualifies him for the designation “Only in America.” Real estate millionaire, showman, celebrity. He who has skyrocketed, fallen deeply and crawled back up, armed with an indestructible belief in his own abilities — characteristics that appeal to many Americans, especially in uncertain times, coupled with a faltering belief in progress. This is confirmed by a recent poll; even though Trump declares himself to be only in the phase of thinking of running for office, he has already surpassed the experienced politician Mitt Romney as the frontrunner of the supposed participants of the Republican primaries in the polls, and he is not far behind Obama.

Just like the successful businessman Ross Perot in 1992, such a person should never be underestimated. But it would surprise me very much if his star continues to shine long enough for him to stand a serious chance. He currently lacks organizational support, there are too many contradictory statements to his name (about Obama’s qualities, among others) and he has done too well for himself, financially.

Consequently, for now Obama’s prospects are very good. No matter how cocky the Republicans are, among the current candidates for the nomination there is no one of the same stature. Their frontline is reminiscent of 1988, when from the Democratic side “seven dwarfs” went up against George Bush Sr. Though this may yet turn into 1992, when that same Bush was all of a sudden outplayed by Bill Clinton.