One Battle Won, But the War Continues

Osama bin Laden’s death allowed the world to breathe more easily, but it didn’t make us one bit safer. The war against terrorism has to continue unabated.

The relief in the United States and the street celebrations that broke out when it was learned that Osama bin Laden was dead are understandable. The 9/11 attacks and the seemingly unending hunt for the world’s most famous terrorist left deep traumatic scars on the American psyche. Bin Laden showed the heavily-armed superpower just how vulnerable it was despite all its military might. The fact that it took ten years to bring the manhunt to an end just added to the feelings of helplessness.

Osama bin Laden became the symbol of global Islamic terrorism. That’s why it was so important for the United States to succeed in tracking him down. This is the most significant foreign policy achievement of Obama’s administration, and it raises his chances of reelection considerably. It wasn’t just coincidence that one of the first to congratulate Obama was former President George W. Bush, who would have loved to notch this victory during his own term in office.

But during all the global congratulatory dispatches, one thing should not be forgotten: The operational leadership of al-Qaida has already been taken over by others; bin Laden had become more the organization’s intellectual leader rather than its tactical one. And the terror network he founded is not a tightly run organization; rather, it has long operated as a decentralized group.

Precisely the most spectacular attacks in recent times were carried out by regional branches of al-Qaida, who operate under their own command structures. For example, the attack on the Marrakesh café has been attributed to the “al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb” branch.

The United States and Pakistan must now fear retaliatory attacks. Everything we know about bin Laden’s death thus far points more to a planned execution than it does to a chance fatality during a firefight. Reports that bin Laden died from a bullet to the head and that the body was immediately buried at sea without an autopsy will further inflame the anger of Islamic fundamentalists.

The danger of attacks inside Germany will, more likely than not, increase over the short term. The German police union has already issued a warning of possible retaliation and advises “utmost vigilance.” Finally, the most recent arrests made by the Federal Criminal Police in Düsseldorf and Bochum show that terrorists are operational inside Germany as well — far removed from the al-Qaida leader in Pakistan.

The death of Osama bin Laden represents a single victory in the battle against terrorism but is a long way from total victory in the war. Many questions remain unanswered, not the least of which is the effectiveness of international cooperation in the war on terror. The fact that bin Laden wasn’t found in a hidden cave but had been living undetected for years in a luxurious villa in Pakistan doesn’t reflect well on his pursuers. And the Pakistani government has to now be asked whether they haven’t held the upper hand over the number one terrorist for a long time.