What Next? Five Questions on the Death of Osama Bin Laden

Americans have not taken long to react to the death of Osama Bin Laden.

Shortly before midnight last night, several hundred people gathered in front of the White House in Washington, D.C. Some sang the national anthem while others waved American flags. Everyone showed their enthusiasm in one way or another. Osama Bin Laden was a powerful symbol and his death is undoubtedly a landmark event in America.

But just how significant is it? What are the implications of his disappearance on the political situation in the U.S.? We met late last night with the director of American Political and Economic Studies at the University of Montreal, Pierre Martin, to discuss these issues.

Q. Americans will soon be commemorating the 10th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. Sunday night they learn of the death of Osama Bin Laden. What does this event represent for them?

A. I think it represents a huge sigh of relief. There are a huge amount of Americans who have been frustrated that their leaders could not find those responsible for the 9/11 attacks. The impression was given that the task was cast aside and not a priority.

Q. Does the death of Osama Bin Laden represent a victory for Barack Obama?

A. If there is clear evidence that it happened under his command then it will affect his image as a leader. There are many who think that he lacks guts, that he lacks vision on national security. He is criticized for his softness. Now, he will be given more credit.

As far as anything else goes, that depends on what happens next. If these events ignite a resurgence of violence from Al Qaeda which puts the Americans in a weak position, it’s clear that Obama will have to face more tests. Having said that, Americans tend to rally behind their leaders in situations such as this and they will give their President the benefit of the doubt. Obama could benefit from this boost in public opinion if there is a resurgence in violence.

Q. It is necessary that we don’t jump to conclusions and assume that Obama has secured his re-election in 2012?

A. Obviously not, no. It’s definitely good news but it’s a long road yet. There will be all kinds of events over the coming weeks which will make the situation more politically complex. Moreover, the Bush administration will return to the spotlight as we analyze its failure to capture Bin Laden. This will fuel debates between Democrats and Republicans and lead to conflict and hostilities between the two parties.

Q. In relation to the war on terrorism, how significant is this event?

A. It is possible that it could trigger a crisis in leadership that could weaken Al Qaeda but I doubt it. What might happen is that those who want to replace him will take significant actions to show that they are capable of running the organization. So even if there is less cohesion within the group, we could see activities occurring over the weeks that follow.

Q. Will Osama Bin Laden become a martyr? Should Americans expect retaliations?

A. I think that Americans probably already understand that this may be the case. Their alert level has been raised accordingly. There is a degree of caution in doing so. Even if we do not expect an immediate retaliation, we can certainly talk about the possibility of an imminent one.